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Cadence Design Systems Inc. Message Board

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  • edabarsteward edabarsteward Jan 13, 2010 1:12 PM Flag

    CDNS could be a bankrupt company

    EDA is not a high growth market and hasn't been for some time. As your link points out, the EDAC numbers showed a decline over the last year, but I'd think that's a reflection of the economy. It's not a saturated market - most of EDA business is term based which means it renews, typically after a 3 year term. Of course, CDNS was caught out playing some games by mortgaging the future - hence their current predicament. Another aspect of saturation is that EDA will also be tied to the growth of electronics (not only semiconductor). So there is some growth potential.

    I do not agree that EDA revenues have been flat or declining for several years, at least not according to EDAC. There was a decline in 2008 & 2009. Of course, the 2008 decline was largely affected by the Cadence fiasco. I believe with 2009, we are back to a realistic view of revenues in EDA so I'd expect growth in 2010 (barring the economy tanking).

    Given design starts for ASICs/SOCs are declining, look for growth in ESL system level design, hw/sw. PCB will remain reliable, as will verification & custom IC.

    An industry segment does not have to be a big growth segment in order for companies to prosper. So long as it is profitable, what's wrong with value? Hence my belief that CDNS can go to 12 in a year or so. I'm not a CDNS bull or bear. I can see some upside potential but I have my doubts about the unproven leadership over there.

    BTW, I hear CDNS is laying off some folks this week - mostly in sales.

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