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Cadence Design Systems Inc. Message Board

  • big_redfox big_redfox Apr 27, 1999 1:33 AM Flag

    Harding resign

    I do not think the conference call tomorrow is
    about Harding
    resigning. For you starters, no
    company ever have any big
    publicity on their CEO's
    resigning. They usually do it quietly.
    I do not think
    there is any reason to call Harding resigning by
    the
    board. Does the CEO have to resign when the stock going
    down
    the hill? Remember, all CEO has golden parachute (if
    you do
    not know what it is, you should not be
    even in the market). Any
    one know how much it
    is?

    I believe tomorrow's conference call is nothing but
    to answer
    questions from media, kind of dressing
    CDN up, reassure everyone
    etc. Just too much
    negative publicity out there about CDN.
    Do not expect
    any shocking news there.

    Yes, I do believe
    CDN will go up tomorrow. I think everyone
    knows
    CDN is cheap and many want to hear from the company
    before
    buying. And CDN will tell what money managers want to
    hear
    tomorrow.

    CDN to single digit when there is a class action
    lawsuit? Do
    you know every public company buys
    insurance for this kind of
    stuff?

    For those who
    thinks FAM is a bad idea, let me tell you
    something.
    Do you think CDN want to do that? Absolutely not!
    Every company
    loves cash deals. But what EDA vendors
    do it? Customer DEMAND!
    As EDA tools get more and
    more expansive, first comes lease
    and then capital
    lease, now FAM. Actually FAM is available for
    small
    timers. I do not believe you can get FAM (or nor
    worthwhile
    in terms of payment) if you only use one or two
    license. FAM
    is really for companies like TI or
    Motorola. FAM is cheaper than
    site license. Partly FAM
    is to ensure the semi houses does not
    even think
    about the competitors. If you are a design
    manager
    and you run out of licenses, what you do? Look around
    and talk
    to different EDA companies and that
    invites competition.

    A lot of people here think
    SNPS is a better company. But do you
    know SNPS is
    still considered a single product company? Only
    their
    Design Compiler is the butter and bread. Yes, SNPS has a
    lot of
    tools (many are really too small and do not
    have a lot customers)
    but many do not contibute
    much to revenue. Now CDN bought Ambit
    and begin to
    catch up on DC.

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    • We need to talk (email). My email is
      shucka@earthlink.com. Please email me and I will respond. I currently
      do not work for CDN. A number of CDN folks will know
      who I am by the email.

      I put "Dr. insideEDA"
      as an indication of respect.

    • <Intel and Microsoft. Are they run by
      beancounters? No way, Andy Grove and Bill Gates both have
      engineering background.>

      First of all, Andy Grove
      no longer runs Intel. And while the company did
      enjoy the full 'blossoming' of its success during the
      years he was at the helm (as its 3rd CEO, BTW), a lot
      of that success was due to the company simply
      catching the wave of the technology boom.

      Second,
      what Bill Gates knows about technology you could fit
      on the head of a pin! Microsoft almost missed the
      'Internet revolution' entirely because brilliant Mr. Gates
      claimed that it would go nowhere. And you certainly
      couldn't call Microsoft a technology innovator -- why do
      you think they call it Windows 98? Because it
      contains 98 percent of the (bug-ridden) code found in
      previous revs of Windows. And let's not forget that he's a
      Harvard dropout. The only reason Microsoft is so
      successful is that consumers, not to mention stockholders,
      are such sheep that they will take anything Gates
      says as gospel. I hope Linux comes to fruition and
      rocks M-soft's world!

      Re: Cadence: Regardless of
      who is running the company, it will once again
      prevail because it has a much better, more complete
      technology vision than any of its competitors, including
      SNPS! I believe it will prevail...

    • Peterwhatever - please be specific and enlighten
      all of us where I am off base. If nothing else, I
      would like to get a chance to clarify a point I made or
      learn from an expert like you.

      Thanks for giving
      everyone the warning - each investor should do their own
      research and prove to themselves whether my or another
      anothers remarks on this forum is truthful.


      Everything I have stated is public knowledge and comes from
      my fifteen years of experience in the EDA field and
      through contacts at other companies.

    • told you guys that this story/stock was going to
      $8-12/s. Very few believed me! Next time look at a balance
      sheet as well as the income statement! These guys were
      so aggressive in their accounting that this is a
      joke. J.Harding was just a fall guy for the numerous
      crappy decisions that were made over the last 2-3 years.
      I told you guys that Jack was way in over his head.
      Now you know I was right. Joe Costello will be back
      when this company is truly on the bottom. PS: Capital
      Group is wearing a bunch of stock at $20-25/s. Sorry
      all you guys had to lose so much money butyou can't
      pay and egineer $75-125/k/yr and charage your clients
      the same and have a good business model.

    • CDN is really cheap right now. With the Quickturn
      merger, and slowly digesting AMBIT, the future is much
      stronger than any of the analysts realize, and it looks
      like the 12 ~ 13 is the bottom. Don't dally, it's not
      going to stay this cheap forever!

    • Hi all

      Is anyone still buying this stock? Any good news in the future?

      thanks

    • <<EDAVeteran claims to be an expert. IMHO,
      he is off
      base on several issues regarding the
      current state
      of EDA business, especially with
      respect to his claims
      about what's happening at
      SNPS.>>

      Well do tell us exactly where he's wrong and
      why.

      If you can't, then you ain't no expert either.

    • Excess inventory is:

      1) Having the wrong
      type of consultants in the wrong places to execute on
      service engagements - you're right ee_in_ny - actually
      you just fire em and let their severance packages act
      as restructuring special charge !!

      2) Having
      revenued most of big packages of software in 1999, on
      contracts that won't complete until 2001/2002. Cadence
      basically engaged in channel stuffing 'cept their own
      customers were the channel.

    • < While Cadence struggles with inventory and
      other problems

      inventory??

      What does she
      mean, all those surplus EE's in design services? Maybe
      they're drugged unconscious and stashed away in
      warehouses?

      Sheesh.

    • "Synopsys has some pretty innovative tools that
      we think will help the company achieve a 20% or
      higher growth rate" says Van Dorsten, who rates Synopsys
      a Strong Buy. (He was one of the analysts who
      downgraded Cadence last week.)

      "Synopsys is really
      well-positioned right now," explains Jennifer Smith of BancBoston
      Robertson Stephens. "We feel very good about its product
      momentum, they have a clear balance sheet, a high cash
      balance, and are a well-run company." She rates the stock
      Strong Buy and has a price target of 76.


      Synopsys's stock looks pretty reasonable right now, still
      24% off its 52-week high of 61 1/4. It's changing
      hands at only 19x First Call's consensus earnings
      estimates of $2.50 for 1999 and at 16x the $3.02 the
      company is expected to earn in 2000. That's much lower
      than its historical average P/E of 24x, according to
      Lehman Brothers, and a nice discount to the company's
      long-term growth rate of 25%, according to First
      Call.

      Bottom fishers looking for a turnaround may find
      Cadence shares attractive now. "I'm not one of the
      penguins in the water," says Dan Myers, a semiconductor
      analyst at Lehman Brothers who didn't downgrade with the
      rest of the Street last week. "Ten times earnings
      seems to be pretty cheap."

      Money manager Babson
      says he bought on weakness, doubling his fund's
      position in Cadence early last week to around a million
      and a half shares. "We're not here to make a quick
      buck," he says. "This is a great situation where we can
      see a lot of value beyond the next three to six
      months, where the street isn't paying attention."


      At Thursday's price of 13 3/4, Cadence is a whopping
      63% off its 52-week high of 37. It also changes hands
      at a minuscule ten times 1999 earnings estimates of
      $1.34 in 1999 and only eight times the $1.61 First
      Call's consensus projects in 2000. That's a huge
      discount to its 25% long-term growth rate, its historical
      P/E of 23x and the group average of 17.3x next year's
      earnings, according to Lehman Brothers.

      There are
      risks, of course, even with Synopsys, which could face
      increased price and product competition and still gets
      20%-30% of its revenues from recovering Asian economies.
      The integration of Everest Design Automation, which
      Synopsys recently acquired, is also an issue.


      Cadence, of course, still has a lot of explaining to do.
      But the sector's growth speaks for itself. And the
      number two player appears to be speaking loudest of all.

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