I do not think the conference call tomorrow is
resigning. For you starters, no
company ever have any big
publicity on their CEO's
resigning. They usually do it quietly.
I do not think
there is any reason to call Harding resigning by
board. Does the CEO have to resign when the stock going
the hill? Remember, all CEO has golden parachute (if
not know what it is, you should not be
even in the market). Any
one know how much it
I believe tomorrow's conference call is nothing but
questions from media, kind of dressing
CDN up, reassure everyone
etc. Just too much
negative publicity out there about CDN.
Do not expect
any shocking news there.
Yes, I do believe
CDN will go up tomorrow. I think everyone
CDN is cheap and many want to hear from the company
buying. And CDN will tell what money managers want to
CDN to single digit when there is a class action
you know every public company buys
insurance for this kind of
For those who
thinks FAM is a bad idea, let me tell you
Do you think CDN want to do that? Absolutely not!
loves cash deals. But what EDA vendors
do it? Customer DEMAND!
As EDA tools get more and
more expansive, first comes lease
and then capital
lease, now FAM. Actually FAM is available for
timers. I do not believe you can get FAM (or nor
in terms of payment) if you only use one or two
is really for companies like TI or
Motorola. FAM is cheaper than
site license. Partly FAM
is to ensure the semi houses does not
about the competitors. If you are a design
and you run out of licenses, what you do? Look around
to different EDA companies and that
A lot of people here think
SNPS is a better company. But do you
know SNPS is
still considered a single product company? Only
Design Compiler is the butter and bread. Yes, SNPS has a
tools (many are really too small and do not
have a lot customers)
but many do not contibute
much to revenue. Now CDN bought Ambit
and begin to
catch up on DC.
We need to talk (email). My email is
email@example.com. Please email me and I will respond. I currently
do not work for CDN. A number of CDN folks will know
who I am by the email.
I put "Dr. insideEDA"
as an indication of respect.
<Intel and Microsoft. Are they run by
beancounters? No way, Andy Grove and Bill Gates both have
First of all, Andy Grove
no longer runs Intel. And while the company did
enjoy the full 'blossoming' of its success during the
years he was at the helm (as its 3rd CEO, BTW), a lot
of that success was due to the company simply
catching the wave of the technology boom.
what Bill Gates knows about technology you could fit
on the head of a pin! Microsoft almost missed the
'Internet revolution' entirely because brilliant Mr. Gates
claimed that it would go nowhere. And you certainly
couldn't call Microsoft a technology innovator -- why do
you think they call it Windows 98? Because it
contains 98 percent of the (bug-ridden) code found in
previous revs of Windows. And let's not forget that he's a
Harvard dropout. The only reason Microsoft is so
successful is that consumers, not to mention stockholders,
are such sheep that they will take anything Gates
says as gospel. I hope Linux comes to fruition and
rocks M-soft's world!
Re: Cadence: Regardless of
who is running the company, it will once again
prevail because it has a much better, more complete
technology vision than any of its competitors, including
SNPS! I believe it will prevail...
Peterwhatever - please be specific and enlighten
all of us where I am off base. If nothing else, I
would like to get a chance to clarify a point I made or
learn from an expert like you.
Thanks for giving
everyone the warning - each investor should do their own
research and prove to themselves whether my or another
anothers remarks on this forum is truthful.
Everything I have stated is public knowledge and comes from
my fifteen years of experience in the EDA field and
through contacts at other companies.
told you guys that this story/stock was going to
$8-12/s. Very few believed me! Next time look at a balance
sheet as well as the income statement! These guys were
so aggressive in their accounting that this is a
joke. J.Harding was just a fall guy for the numerous
crappy decisions that were made over the last 2-3 years.
I told you guys that Jack was way in over his head.
Now you know I was right. Joe Costello will be back
when this company is truly on the bottom. PS: Capital
Group is wearing a bunch of stock at $20-25/s. Sorry
all you guys had to lose so much money butyou can't
pay and egineer $75-125/k/yr and charage your clients
the same and have a good business model.
CDN is really cheap right now. With the Quickturn
merger, and slowly digesting AMBIT, the future is much
stronger than any of the analysts realize, and it looks
like the 12 ~ 13 is the bottom. Don't dally, it's not
going to stay this cheap forever!
<<EDAVeteran claims to be an expert. IMHO,
he is off
base on several issues regarding the
of EDA business, especially with
respect to his claims
about what's happening at
Well do tell us exactly where he's wrong and
If you can't, then you ain't no expert either.
Excess inventory is:
1) Having the wrong
type of consultants in the wrong places to execute on
service engagements - you're right ee_in_ny - actually
you just fire em and let their severance packages act
as restructuring special charge !!
revenued most of big packages of software in 1999, on
contracts that won't complete until 2001/2002. Cadence
basically engaged in channel stuffing 'cept their own
customers were the channel.
< While Cadence struggles with inventory and
What does she
mean, all those surplus EE's in design services? Maybe
they're drugged unconscious and stashed away in
"Synopsys has some pretty innovative tools that
we think will help the company achieve a 20% or
higher growth rate" says Van Dorsten, who rates Synopsys
a Strong Buy. (He was one of the analysts who
downgraded Cadence last week.)
"Synopsys is really
well-positioned right now," explains Jennifer Smith of BancBoston
Robertson Stephens. "We feel very good about its product
momentum, they have a clear balance sheet, a high cash
balance, and are a well-run company." She rates the stock
Strong Buy and has a price target of 76.
Synopsys's stock looks pretty reasonable right now, still
24% off its 52-week high of 61 1/4. It's changing
hands at only 19x First Call's consensus earnings
estimates of $2.50 for 1999 and at 16x the $3.02 the
company is expected to earn in 2000. That's much lower
than its historical average P/E of 24x, according to
Lehman Brothers, and a nice discount to the company's
long-term growth rate of 25%, according to First
Bottom fishers looking for a turnaround may find
Cadence shares attractive now. "I'm not one of the
penguins in the water," says Dan Myers, a semiconductor
analyst at Lehman Brothers who didn't downgrade with the
rest of the Street last week. "Ten times earnings
seems to be pretty cheap."
Money manager Babson
says he bought on weakness, doubling his fund's
position in Cadence early last week to around a million
and a half shares. "We're not here to make a quick
buck," he says. "This is a great situation where we can
see a lot of value beyond the next three to six
months, where the street isn't paying attention."
At Thursday's price of 13 3/4, Cadence is a whopping
63% off its 52-week high of 37. It also changes hands
at a minuscule ten times 1999 earnings estimates of
$1.34 in 1999 and only eight times the $1.61 First
Call's consensus projects in 2000. That's a huge
discount to its 25% long-term growth rate, its historical
P/E of 23x and the group average of 17.3x next year's
earnings, according to Lehman Brothers.
risks, of course, even with Synopsys, which could face
increased price and product competition and still gets
20%-30% of its revenues from recovering Asian economies.
The integration of Everest Design Automation, which
Synopsys recently acquired, is also an issue.
Cadence, of course, still has a lot of explaining to do.
But the sector's growth speaks for itself. And the
number two player appears to be speaking loudest of all.