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Coeur Mining, Inc. Message Board

  • rockyracoon2004 rockyracoon2004 Feb 21, 2013 10:36 AM Flag

    Q4 Earnings ...........

    ........ ended up exactly where Coeur pre-announced in their January 17 press release. Q4 sales were $206 million, full year 2012 sales were $895 million.

    Coeur's report this morning was so heavily focused on full year 2012 that the Q4 numbers were largely obscured. Good strategy by Coeur, as the Q4 numbers by themselves were relatively weak.

    Here's the comparison of Q4 actuals vs. my forecast:

    1. The average realized price for silver was $32.52 per ounce, vs. my forecast of $32.60
    2. The average realized price for gold was $1,709, vs. my forecast of $1,720
    3. Capital expenditures were $21.8 million, vs. my forecast of $30 million
    4. Royalty payments to Franco Nevada were $ 16.6 million, vs. my forecast of $20 million
    5. Operating cash flow of $79.2 million, vs. my forecast of $85 million
    6. Gain on derivatives of $21.2 million, in line with my forecast of $20-25 million

    It should be noted that the Q4 gain on derivatives of $21.2 million was a $59 million improvement over the Q3 loss of $37.7 million. I had forecast an improvement of approx $60 million. Good job, Rocky! lol

    Lastly, it should be noted that 279,000 ounces of silver produced in Q4 remained unsold at the end of the quarter. Also, 5,200 ounces of gold were produced that weren't sold. That represents nearly $18 million of sales that should fall into Q1.

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    • "Lastly, it should be noted that 279,000 ounces of silver produced in Q4 remained unsold at the end of the quarter. Also, 5,200 ounces of gold were produced that weren't sold. That represents nearly $18 million of sales that should
      I seem to have missed the explanation for why those ounces weren't sold.

    • anyway rocky you should know why cde beat earnings they actually lowered the earnings projections by the usa miners HL and cde by a whole lot hl by a whooping 25% already if they dont beat them they are utter failures,

      they set the bar so low already the for usa miners.
      other ones have not had it so lucky though.

      others are more hated by wall street so they keep their estimates high so they wont beat them.

      but cde on the other hand at least made a beat.
      HL should beat as well at 3 pennies they better as it is an extremely low estimate. and silver prices for that period was higher.

      if they dont then.... oh boy. they did in fact lower cde and hl estimates by a whole lot I mean cde lowed down to 24 cents from 40-50 cents?.... yeah you get it?

      at least cde is still making money though 29* 4 is about 1.20 for the year then.
      3 quarters = 30 cents so far for the year
      4th quarter?

      certainly cde is ok long term though. but objectively speaking p/e is too high at 80.

      • 2 Replies to ryugo82
      • ryugo, I have to say I see it quite differently. CDE didn't beat earnings (net income, GAAP basis) because of artificially low estimates. Coeur "beat earnings" because of the $21 million gain on derivatives, which the brain-dead analysts don't take the few seconds to calculate and include in their estimates.

        Next, CDE shareholders don't look at Q4 as a quarter in which the company "beat estimates". By virtually any measure (whether that be revenue, operating cash flow, or ebitda), the quarter's numbers were a disappointment because of weak silver production at Palmarejo and San Bart. The gain on derivatives served only to mask, on a GAAP basis, how disappointing the Q4 operating numbers were.

        Lastly, I recommend you expand your valuation metrics to include things considerably more important that EPS. When valuing a miner, particularly Coeur, a much better primary metric is operating cash flow. Doing so will result in a multiple SIGNIFICANTLY lower than your p/e of 80.

      • HL made one penny in Q3 with Ag sale price at $35 pe oz. How would they make 3 pennies in Q4?
        Lower Ag prices, extra expenses for LF rehiring, higher diesel fuel costs. I hope HL breaks even in Q4.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
CDE
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