Whether you buy it now at about $44 or hope for it to drop before buying it.... either case, the stock should be nicely higher in 5 years time than it is today. Throw in the dividends in the mean time, and one can argue that you have yourself a nice investment. Your risk is more overall market risk than EMR specific.
I agree with the previous poster. If the market drops 10%, yeah, you can pick it up for under $40. But I strongly believe EMR will outperform the market in the near to mid-term. They have cut a lot of costs and positioned themselves well for when the ecomony begins to pick up steam. I also like their global presence and diversification.