CEO had a lot to contribute to the board. I hope he has not stopped monitoring the board. His comments improved my thinking, even though his perspective differs from mine. He is on solid ground when discussing the theory of valuation for companies. The major difference between his calculations and mine were the appropriate growth rate to use. I contend that the company can grow rapidly. He expects it to slow down. I suspect both of us are right, but he at least a year early in concerns about a slow down. I will admmit that CEDC will slow to a growth rate equal to it's ROE, around 25%, producing my current price target of $43.
Why is CEDC bidding over $100 million to buy a distillery? They already sell all the products from that distillery. Just to cut out a middleman? Save a few dollars on cost? Sell its own vodka in Poland at a bigger profit? Vodka only amounts to 5% of CEDC sales and is falling. No. What is going on is a high stakes game, with many international companies involved, and the name of the game is exports. Exports of the most famous brand of Polish Vodka to all the rest of the world! If CEDC is successful in its bid for Polmos Bialystok, domestic liquor sales could become a small part of their business, with the major part of revenues coming from vodka export sales.
I am still here. The value of CEDC continues to be $20 based on earnings and fundamentals. It has now become a speculative stock and its valuation is anybody's guess.
As for me being a short, that is pretty funny. I have been on the boards for three years, having bought a substantial position at $1.75. I still own most of it, and am profiting far more than the johnny-come-lately smart guys.
but you only have to read these postings to realize that the day traders have jumped in - and now i am uncomfortable!!! I have started to liquidate my position, because it has become so speculative. However, having decided to sell, I now stand to benefit from the speculative fervor.
So, let's go CEDC - on to $100. Let's buy the distillery, expand into Hungary and Finland, and so on.
PS to Jagad - thanks for the comments. However, CEDC has never grown organically at a rate beyond 13%. At it's current price, you are paying 20+X projected 2003 earnings for 12% growth - that is a speculative stock!!! People get burned when then price stocks based on acquisition-based growth - because it has to slow!!!