According to Finra the March 2013 bond just jumped 17 1/2 points to 75.. This suggests to me that one of your first two cases is likely. I'm guessing the company offers some sort of stock for debt swap,
hageneriksson - thanks for your comments on the bonds.
From what you know about the March convertible bonds, what might be a reasonable restructuring involving some repayment of cash, equity and/or new bonds. It would seem to me that these bondholders are not in a strong position since if they force default, they are unlikely to get much back in liquidation. Better to accept some compromise involving equity and cash/bonds.
For example, what would be the dilution of equity if they were to accept 50% of value in shares and 50% in new bonds?
I'd stick with it. Tariko is a Vodka man, and he's going to turn them around. Their problem, I think, is branding, and their new CEO, who just got onboard on the tenth, is a genius with branding, former head of Red Bull Russia. They're definitely going through changes right now, but the changes are in the right direction. The market has not picked up on the good things going on with the company because their main operations are so far from the market makers. I don't know what your price point is, but I'm in at 2.30 and looking to double. By the spring, I think we'll be looking at a whole new stock.