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Central European Distribution Corp. Message Board

  • marketcreator12 marketcreator12 Jan 14, 2013 2:32 PM Flag

    Does anyone have any clue where this stock is heading?...

    ... Is there any hope for it? I have a position in this stock which is under water but wanted to see if I should take a loss and get out it all together or not! I appreciate a response.

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    • about an upcoming bonds restructuring - Tariko obviously wants to bring the debt down through some kind of bondsholder haircut in connection with issuing new equity to them.

      The stock will continue to act poorly as long as the implications from the bonds restructuring remain unknown.

      best case: No restructuring, the March convertible bonds are going to be paid back in full with no haircut and no additional equity issuance.

      reasonable case: restructuring - equity holders will suffer further dilution

      worst case: bankruptcy - equity holders will be wiped out

      a much safer play on CEDC is the senior bond currently trading at 65 which should be near 100 again ifthe company will resolve the current issues.

    • I'd stick with it. Tariko is a Vodka man, and he's going to turn them around. Their problem, I think, is branding, and their new CEO, who just got onboard on the tenth, is a genius with branding, former head of Red Bull Russia. They're definitely going through changes right now, but the changes are in the right direction. The market has not picked up on the good things going on with the company because their main operations are so far from the market makers. I don't know what your price point is, but I'm in at 2.30 and looking to double. By the spring, I think we'll be looking at a whole new stock.

      Sentiment: Buy