Hope all is well with everybody in the real world. Got power back a few days ago but still without telephone or internet. About 30% of the people I work with still don't have power. Still waiting for the local grocery stores to actually have meat and perishibles in them. Been a real eye opener for me the last few weeks.
Not much new on the investment front. Been trying to deal with surviving all the crazies down here. The animal instinct has really come out in a lot of people.
See CPFB has made a nice move today. NCFT holding strong. Very happy with that one.
Probably not a play but any public company that makes roof tile, buy it. There is now a one year waiting list to repair and replace your roof down here if you have barrel tile. Just about every house that had barrel tile is now being decorated with blue tarps.
An example of difficulties selling thinly traded common during challenging conditions can be currently seen at WSB, a bank in Maryland. (Note the comment in Message No.3)
We saw shareholders wiped-out at Glendale Savings Bank some years ago when the Federal Govt failed to implement a valid contract with the bank. Ten years of litigation later, the Supremes ruled in favor of the the bank's suit but shareholders had been wacked years before.
It's a reminder that value is always at risk, perhaps even more so with banking investments, because the Office of Thrift Managment can step-in anytime seriously deteriorating values of common shares. Even if OTM action is later ruled unjustified, the damage to shareholders is done. So we take the investment opportunities of thinly traded critters realizing that risk is always present...and that risk is worth much, much more than six or eight percent annually, imo. Good wishes,
Pin, I'm glad you are still holding PNFP long term. My position is about half the size of your long term holdings and I plan to add to it.
My concern with the price swings in the thinly traded stocks is that if there was ever a reason to exit quickly, it would be difficult to get your cash out.
Time to take the dog for the nightly walk.
In my IRA I have traded a 2500 share position in PNFP several times. Usually 22+ to 24.50 -25 and then repeat it. In my taxable accounts, I hold my permanent position of 10000 shares.
You'll see the swings in CPFB and others on the BB, because they are thin and the desks that trade them often have brokers to pay a 1/4 to 1/2 a pt in commission. Most direct orders get a 5 to 10 cent markup or occur between the bid and ask. Its nothing to worry about, but simply a fact of life on the BB. It is a good reminder to never use a market order on the BB.
I see these small to medium size community banks continuing to get deposits and loan business from the larger guys. This should translate into earnings growth, book value growth and an increase in the intrinsic value of the business. The market trend will dictate what the share prices do, and I can't call that, but I would try to remember, at all times, if I am a long term investor or not in each position. In PNFP, the large position, is my long term position.
HWFG has a dividend going for it and a bright guy with his money on the line. Almost all of these have both and its hard to think that bright people with the majority of their net worth in a stock are going to screw up if they can help it.
This years market tends to make us all skittish and it takes our eye of the long term ball as we attempt to preserve capital and catch each new mover. Its worth reflecting on as the year winds down.
STTK : Smart-tek CEO Meets With Chinese Officials On Avian Flu
Monday November 21, 9:55 am ET
CORTE MADERA, Calif., Nov. 21, 2005 (PRIMEZONE) -- Smart-tek Solutions, Inc. (OTC BB:STTK.OB - News) announced today that the company has met and discussed with the Chinese government to immediately prepare for test trials of its RFID monitoring and tracking technologies at a poultry farm in China, in the fight against the possible spread of the H5N1 Avian Influenza.
Upon his return from China, Mr. Donald Gee, Chairman and CEO of Smart-tek Solutions, Inc. announced, ``We had highly successful and encouraging meetings and discussions with Chinese officials from the Ministry of Science and Technology.'' He added, ``For the Chinese government, this is an area of such immediate and grave concern in their fight against the spread of the Bird Flu. The Ministry of Science and Technology has a team that is charged with monitoring the Avian Flu in China and is seeking solutions to assist in the surveillance of poultry as well as other livestock.''
Mr. Goodwin Wang, Managing Director of SES Investments (China) Ltd., who accompanied Mr. Gee to the meetings in Beijing said, ``We were advised at the meeting with the Ministry of Science and Technology, that this Ministry has the authority to issue a national mandatory directive to require the use of RFID technology by all poultry farms.''
On November 15, 2005, the Ministry of Science and Technology arranged for Mr. Gee to visit a poultry farm in the outskirts of Beijing, China to evaluate and assess the logistics of the proposed test trial. Mr. Gee stated, ``This one facility raises and processes 30 million chickens annually. The sheer number of birds, of all species in China, is simply astonishing.''
On November 17, 2005, China confirmed its first human deaths from the H5N1 avian flu virus, saying one person in Anhui province had died and another in Hunan province was suspected of having been killed by the H5N1 strain. ``We expect there will be more poultry outbreaks to come,'' said Henk Bekedam, World Health Organization's chief official in Beijing, noting that the H5N1 virus that causes bird flu flourishes in autumn and winter months.
Smart-tek Solutions, Inc.'s strategy for the possible containment of the Bird Flu virus is to leverage its expertise in the security, surveillance and monitoring sectors.
Smart-tek Solutions, Inc. technology includes but is not limited to the ability to tag, program and count the specific number of birds, with end user defined rules, utilizing RFID protocols. Data such as 1) the number of birds 2) owner information 3) location information 4) species information and 5) inspection dates can all be programmed utilizing case by case specific needs of Organizations, Governments and Agencies.
More information about Smart-tek Solutions Inc. can be found at http://www.smart-teksolutions.com
More information about SCI can be found at http://www.smart-tek.com.
Pin was there a particular reason you scaled back on PNFP? I'm still positive on it and consider it a long time hold. I sold CLFCE reluctanly as I have done well in it but they are continually having to restate their earnings. Otherwise I haven't sold any banks and have added to PNFP, AMRB and NCFT. I wonder what the near future holds for the small banks. Seeing how BOJF.OB and CPFB.OB drop on small volume is scary. I think the dividend and the lack of interest gives HWFG a special margin of safety.
This link may be helpful. Often, when it's too good to be true, well, you know....
SOR has been superb income and growth for me. I bought it in the low $40's many years ago. Good wishes.
Good to hear from all of you and hear what you are doing.
I am not into the bird flu stocks and won't be. I won't understand them or feel comfortable.
I am still in HWFG and plan to sit tight. I am investing there to be alongside the top guy. He is a bright fellow and experienced, but the company will have to become less thrift-like. H&A gives you some thoughts on it a couple times a yr.
As for me: MBWM is gone...just a trade for lunch money, PNFP scaled back by 60%...trade position only, SWCB pared by 1/3. Non banks, EMC, CSCO, CULS and DSTM reduced.
Holding newbies and added a little FSWA to watch. Raised HVYB a little. Raised BMRC a little.
Numbers fine on all of them except Pinnacle in Oregon. These boys are not real sharp and may see me on my next trip south.
I am lucking out on the toy front, SW. We seem to be stuck on dinosaurs, Thomas the Train and tools; nothing very complex or expensive.
I am getting the Elf the Mint proof sets each yr, but thats the only other thing.
Overall, lightening on this rally and may try to short the SPY again. Financials did very well on this bounce, but I question the staying power of the market.
Everyone have a good weekend,
"...Am staying away from your bird flu stocks that Rand talks about. Personal opinion is this is just a scare type thing like Y2K and nothing much will become of it."
I have been thinking all the talk about bird flu
was just media fear ( the news loves to scare everybody these days ) until I read in my local business paper yesterday that of the entire regional budget of 77 million dollars of venture capital 66 million is going an existing Tamaflu plant so that they can expand. I recall hearing something about Tamaflu being of some minimal aid against bird flu. So now I'm at least curious. When other people start putting up cash
I like to find out why.
PS. It turned cold here in North Carolina yesterday. A lovely, leaves on the ground, get out your sweaters fall chill.