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Two Harbors Investment Corp. Message Board

  • sho261 sho261 Mar 13, 2013 9:13 AM Flag

    Game over?

    the ball game has been playing for years.. the mreits are in the top of the ninth with 2 outs and a full count on the batter.. its not that hard to understand..everyone knows Bernanke is having his last at bat.. compressed earnings, divi cuts on the way,sector rotation.. sry guys..

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    • well I did try to warn you guys as you can see from this post... dated March 13,2013

      Because the market is raising interest rates and Bernanke is keeping short term rates close to zero the yield curve is steepening which will hurt the traditional Mreits such as AGNC.. The assets that AGNC holds will drop in value causing book value to decline and everyone knows that Mreits are priced as a multiple of book (1.2 x is a fairly priced merit). The spread will widen and that will help earnings but hedging will cost a lot more. The risk in these Mreits are coming home to roost folks..

    • You were mentioned by Cramer last night on CNBC. You know, one of the people trying to drag everyone else down with your pessimism. As Cramer said, you can't fight the fed! This market will do fine for at least the next 3-6 months. Then, I agree it's time to keep a wary eye. Meanwhile, you are losing out on someof the largest gain opportunities in the history of the market. Unfortunately, your understanding of the impact of globalization on valuation of markets is extremely limited. You could do well with some research on the topic.

    • well you got big benny by all accounts going out at least two more years, you got top RE analyst ivy zelman calling peak and trough saying us re could go for another half decade, sure you can forget buffett saying he'd buy every single house in us if there were a way to feasibly operate, then you got blackstone, again arguably some of the smartest guys in the room buying up billions of homes to reno then rent out assumedly selling in 5 to 7 years once port has doubled, granted the chinese are always the titanic in the room trying to avoid the us europe disasters knows as icebergs so if china steers clear of us issues and vice versa and each is allowed to heal on its own, the us keeps printing and buying and china keeps printing and lying, then we should be fine for at least 2-4 yrs reit wise,

      • 1 Reply to markjhabs00
      • Your thinking is why the average retail person loses in the market..too much noise...you have been trained well .. It's this simple..regardless of what Bernanke says.. the market has started raising interest rates and will continue to control the direction.. but more importantly,, you are ignoring mbs prices.. they are dropping again as I type.. all mreit bv values will decline precipitously.. So I guess you are saying to invest in a sector that is rolling over? Good luck with that..

    • Jeolous? I fully understand you. But when I felt this way I bought. I didn't stay on sidelines bantering and crying. Be a man!

      • 1 Reply to worsethanbrewskih
      • Jealous? At least spell the word correctly as you appear to be some uneducated fool.. Don't be ignorant... you have no clue about what's to happen.. I have been investing in the mreit sector long before AGNC went public in June 2008 and have made a ton of money.. Started with NLY..but that's enough of my history. Two will be cutting their divi, there is spo risk on the table and the bv will drop to match the falling prices of mbs..or do you even know how to check mbs prices? I doubt if you do...but it is worse than this...you will wake up one of these fine spring mornings and see TWO's price collapse and wonder what the heck happened.. the institutional people are bailing on the entire mreit sector.. dont believe me? track any mreit via dark pool and watch the big block selling that is not printed as the mm's print 100 share purchase and raise the price a few cents.. Once the rotation has been completed look out... and some wonder why the retail people lose so much money.. how ignortant... I will be surprised if Yahoo lets this go thru but here it goes..GL

 
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