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Alabama Aircraft Industries, In Message Board

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  • zipperdydoodah zipperdydoodah May 6, 2004 4:42 PM Flag

    BUSINESS AS USUAL!!!

    Why don't you use your brain...

    Operating earnings will be down because

    (a) Royalties got accelerated. This will be earnings this year but will not be continued. It was also earnings last year.

    (b) Channel was stuffed. Drop in earnings equal extra sales times margin. The margin in this business on incremental sales is at least 75% and there are some fairly good estimates on how much channel stuffed.

    (c) This year and beyond because they have sold the business to Mayne.

    Interest will change because

    (a). They need to pay higher interest rates on both the secured and unsecured debt.

    (b). They paid a penalty to the unsecured debt holders.

    (c). They closed their fixed-to-floating interest rate swaps so they now pay fixed rate interest bills.

    (d). (and this might be good) they have repaid some debt.

    Making plausible estimates of all these things you can work out what the earnings are. All you guys are speculating - but it can be done for sure. I have seven things for you to check... only seven.

    It should take people about half an hour to check all these and post answers.

    Everyone asking what earnings are has failed to do basic analysis. In this post are the variables.

    Now think rather than talk.

    Zip

    PS. Most men would rather die than think. Many do.

    I am an old woman so I am not in that category.

 

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