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The GEO Group, Inc. Message Board

  • Easily_Confused Easily_Confused Dec 9, 1999 4:59 PM Flag

    New Lows...Baby

    Let me hear the celebration...WHC hosts year end
    party with it's management team as the entertainment.
    They are really not managers, they are
    mimes/comediens.

    Love to watch my money shrink to new low levels...hope
    evryone had some spending $$$$ set aside for the
    holidays, 'cuz this POS will be a penny stock
    anyday.

    Happy Holidays....I'll watch the obituaries in hopes of
    seeing the report of an atomic bomb set off in Florida.
    I hate this f@#$%ing company.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • WHC is NOT the Titanic. Just year end tax loss
      selling. Don't know how much further down WHC is going but
      enjoy the holidays and be happy that you aren't
      invested in the internet stocks! They will eventually have
      their day of realization and it won't be pretty!

      • 2 Replies to JAVELIN2625
      • NEWS FLASH...NEWS FLASH...WHC is now conducting
        business on the internet...inmates are housed in
        cyberspace...inmates help businesses with their web sites and customer
        service...WHC changes its name to Prisons.Com...stock rockets
        to $1,032 a share on hopes that the steady profits
        currently generated by the company will evaporate and be
        replaced by make believe cyber profits. Sad thing is that
        these new Linux and cyber stocks are "worth" more to
        the eyes of the Wall Street big wigs than solid
        companies like WHC. Gotta love the new World Order.

      • AGREED - do not worry, am taking gains out of
        vitr,rrrr,cmcr&am reinvesting in avs, lin and whc. institutions
        need to post profit and have walked away s.t. - they
        will be back in mid jan 2k, still holding
        iixl,pdyn,vitr,@vytl long
        good luck to all - i think many tech
        techs are ahead and behind me.

    • Would it be considered child endangerment if I
      bought 100 shares of this @ $10 for my 2 year old
      daughter? I guess it would have been safer and more
      profitable to put the $1,000 in a 4% money market....OOPS!

    • Another thing. I believe your accretion analysis
      is incorrect because you fail to adjust for lost
      interest income on cash balances. Math works out to number
      going to $0.966 from $0.92 using your buyback
      numbers.

      Just my opinions.

    • PZN was the leader and lost much of its value on
      its own doing it took the rest of the sector down, a
      new leader will emerge suspect will be WCH and will
      once again raise the bar.

      On the monthly chart
      of WHC if you use a technique called Linnear
      Regression you will find the mean average price of WCH to be
      18.00 a share, said drawn line is practically going
      sideways.
      My intuition tells me any time you buy below
      18 you are in good shape over the long term, I
      average 21.5 so I will again buy to reduce my basis, is
      that simple.

    • Am I missing something here? haven't seen a dividend on this POS since they split 2 for 1 in the summer of '96....must have fat fingered your reply key....

    • I said I wanted someone to set me straight on the
      CPV deal if there was something I was missing and you
      made some good points. But forget the CPV deal for a
      moment.

      I would like to discuss earnings per share and the
      impact of a stock buyback and get your
      feedback:

      First here are some points about the current
      situation:

      1- The consensus EPS estimate for year 2000 is
      currently $1.20. That's down from $1.26 which was the
      estimate about one month ago. But it is still up 20% over
      1999.

      2- The company recently announced at the last
      conference call that the contruction program for next year
      will be more significant then what the analysts were
      expecting. The start up costs on next years construction
      will be about 9 cents a share.

      4- The reason
      the the decline in EPS estimates for next year is
      primarily due to these start up costs. There will also be
      losses on the 2 New Mexico facilities, but that is
      mostly offset by improvements at other facilities,
      particularly in Florida.

      5- The total float of the
      company right now is under $100 million. Hard to believe
      but true. The company has $23 million in cash in he
      bank and no debt.

      Now what should they
      do:

      1- If all they the company does is use only $10
      million of the cash on hand to buyback stock and not
      change any of the construction plans, that alone would
      add 6 cents per share to next years earnings. That
      assumes they get the stock at today's price.

      2- If
      they cut the contruction plans in half (which would
      still be strong growth in new facilities), and buy back
      $20 million in stock (which they could easily do),
      that would add 16 cents to next years earnings (12
      cents for the buyback and 4 cents less in start up
      costs). That would be a huge increase.

      3- However,
      if they tried to buy that much stock in the open
      market it would push up the price and they would not be
      able to get it all anywhere near the current level
      unless they could do a private transaction with a large
      holder that wants out at the current price (there is a
      mutual fund with 1 million shares for
      example).

      4- If they can't make that happen, the next best
      approach would be a Dutch Auction. A $20 million Dutch
      Auction at $12 sounds like a winner. That would either
      push the stock above that level and cost them nothing
      or they get all or a portion at a great price. Even
      at $12 per share, a $20 million purchase would
      increase EPS 10 cents next year. And if they have to cut
      back on the construction to make it happen, its a no
      brainer. The impact on total shareholder value is too
      great to pass it up.

      Unfortunately all
      indications are the company intends to go gangbusters on
      expansion and doesn't appreciate the opportunity this low
      stock price is presenting them.

    • Your right on. Investors should be very
      frustrated and dissappointed with the management of this
      company.

      Its not like the stock is down 10%. Its down 70% in
      just the past 12 months.

      The bottom line issue
      for me is this:

      Should a 70% drop in the stock
      price in a very short period of time have any influence
      on the companies short term business plan?

      A
      company with the financial strength of WHC should not
      find itself in this position. They have options which
      other companies may not. This company is no longer
      valued in the market as a growth stock. Its now strictly
      a deep value stock. The sad fact is that if this
      company were to never get another project and just
      operate what they currently own they would generate
      enough free cash flow, combined with the cash on hand,
      to buy back all of the outstanding float in 2 years.

    • Stochastics meet today and tomorrow showld generate first "Buy Signal" in many moons.

    • "Buy Signal" confirmed today again on higher
      volume for the second day in a row twice the normal
      (average), does not seem on the surface to be a freight
      train, but in time you will see the stock heading
      north.

      Subj: Buy Signal Today
      By: Manboking1
      Date:
      12/16/99 10:54 pm

      Stochastics meet today and
      tomorrow showld generate first "Buy Signal" in many moons.

    • Thanks for spending the time on this, it's
      important stuff for all to understand. Lets do it
      together.

      WHC book value/shareholder equity $115mm....$22 in
      cash or $5.25/share. Return on equity 17.50% or
      $.92/$.5.25.

      Now lets take $22mm and buy 2.2mm shares at $10.
      Done.

      Now lets look at the balance sheet etc. Book value is
      now $4.25 as we spend $1. EPS jumps to $1 from $.92
      as earnings as $20.25 in earnings is divided into
      20.2mm shares verses 22.4mm shares. ROE jumps to 23.5%
      as the numerator and the denominator increase
      ($1/$4.25) We've experienced a 8.5% accretion in earnings.
      ROE has a big increase big treasury shares don't
      count in book value.

      Now lets' assume instead
      they earn 17.50% on that $22mm in cash. 17.50% times
      $22mm =$3.85mm or $.17/shares more earnings. earnings
      is now $1.09, an accretion of 18.70%. Shareholder is
      increased by $3.8mm to $5.42/share. ROE is now 20.1 percent
      ($1.09/$5.42)

      I'll still take option 2.

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