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The GEO Group, Inc. Message Board

  • investorgroup investorgroup Jan 8, 2000 11:14 PM Flag

    I heard that

    WHC lowered its fiscal 2000 EPS. Does anyone have any information to know if this is true, and if it is, what the details/reasons were?

    Thanks for any infomation.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Buypanic,...thank you for providing me with the
      phone number of the Conference Call.
      I agree with
      your post "Flat earnings worst case
      scenario".
      However using cash to buy the stock would show a lack of
      managerial talent, because with out cash there will be no
      new contracts, since sources of funds for
      construction are becoming more expensive and harder to obtain.
      Personally I think the stock began to be accumulated some
      time around December 13th. 98' and smart institutions
      will view this as a temporary set back.

    • I'm also holding a core position. I was fortunate
      that I doubled down at $10, and when I was listening
      to the call right after the first sentence I sold
      half my position. Basically I sold the block I bought
      at $10 for a small profit but am very much under
      water on my original purchase which I will
      hold.

      From the conference call, and a long conversation with
      investor relations afterwards, my feeling is that the
      $1.00 is the worst case. Its what they are using for
      budgeting purposes but its not the real
      target.

      There is a worst case, a most likely case, and a best
      case. The $1.00 is the worst case. There is a lot of
      upside. But its unlikely they will get back to the 20%
      growth for 2000. I'm estimating high single digit growth
      for 2000.

      I think you will see the analysts
      estimates for 2000 between $1.05 and $1.10 after they make
      the revisions from the CC.

      I am resigned to
      very little change in the stock price over the next 6
      months. But certain events could change the outlook
      quickly so I will hold my original
      position.

      Anyone with any sizable investment in WHC was listening
      to the CC. So if they were going to sell they would
      have already. Everything is built into the price at
      this point, I think.

      But there are areas they
      need to improve in the operations of certain
      facilities and they need to be sucessful in getting some
      revisions on the NM contracts. They also need to be more
      conservative in the bidding process on future projects to be
      sure they will earn an adequate return and that all
      contingency risks are considered. In other words, they can't
      continue to bid on projects assuming everything will go
      perfect. They also need to do a better job in controlling
      the growth in g&a overhead costs. And they need to be
      sure they are getting a fair deal in the financial
      arrangements they have with their related parties, both with
      the parent company and with the REIT. There is a lot
      of details in that last one, but I'll just leave it
      at that. And finally they need to use some of their
      cash to buy back stock.

      The challenges are not
      overwhelming and I think they will be ultimately sucessfull,
      but my patience is limited.

    • 1-888-243-0813 for the replay

    • Projected earnings of 0.28 vs 0.22 for this
      quarter, next quarter earnings where reduced by .03 from
      the discontinuation of the Austin, Texas
      contract.
      But is possible that this quarter may be reduced .03
      cents rather than next at any rate im looking at least
      for 0.25 vs 0.22 for the quarter. And 1.20+ for the
      year 2000.

 
GEO
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