I bought this in March 2011 and have been very pleased with its performance, and I think it has further to go. But the entry of hedge funds into the business concerns me - like when all the oil companies started their own captives, and then branched out to insuring others - the whole business cratered for about 5 years, back in the late 70s - early 80s. It might not be that bad this time around, and it may be a few years coming, but I think it best to get out now, and look elsewhere.
Thanks, Axp and Done. If it weren't for the hedge funds I would certainly take a position in SYA, but for now I am going to give the whole sector a miss. As I posted on the BRKA board recently, I just took a position in FRO. I have owned it and other shipping companies before, and this looks like a reasonable time to catch the bottom of the cycle. I think it will be a long, bad downcycle this time because of the relative paucity of older ships available to scrap, but it always starts back up when you least expect it.
I may be moving out of mREITs soon for much the same reason - hedge funds are buying mortgages. Shame, mREITS have been treating me awfully well the last few years.
Speaking of the BRK board, Axp, where are you hanging these days? That board seems to have finally blown up completely.
Not a bad way to view the world. For thirty years we have seen the investment banks and hedge funds screwing up the business that has become over-capitalized and unable to earn a satisfactory return. The markets seem to be excited over recent news that rates are moving higher, but pricing still remains far below an adequate level and until capital leaves the market, competition will soon return.