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Ascential Software Corp. (ASCL) Message Board

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  • InvestmentGuru2001 InvestmentGuru2001 Jun 6, 2002 6:52 PM Flag

    ASCL will be bankrupt

    You're assuming the burn rate is only $15-20 million a quarter, and that the incompetent management won't try to buy itself out of its losses with addtional acquisitions. Bottom line: They no longer have $700 million; it's closer to $450 million. They are burning closer to $200 million in losses. And finally, a few more acquisitions are in the works. So the cash you see now will be gone by year's end.

    Further, even with the acquisitions they have made to date, they are still hemorraging money.

    This company is dying a rapid death. Analysts see underperformance, and the Street sees the company as the personal playground of PG and his cronies.

    The only person to come away with 100s of millions from this company is PG, and he is well on his way.

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    • Ok, even with the bogus numbers you spout, your math just doesn't add up.

      If they currently have $450 million, even if they somehow manage to have a burn rate of $50 mill/quarter (your $200 million number was, I assume, what you expect their yearly burn rate to be.)

      That would mean $150 million in operational losses, leaving them with $300 million still in the bank by years end.

      So, your entire supposition of them going bankrupt is based on:

      a) Your incorrect assumption that they are losing $50 million/quarter (hell, they only SPENT $39 million last quarter).

      b) Your very questionable view that they only have $450 million left. Their last report had them with $723 million in cash and short-term investments, and this included the purchase of MetaRecon already.

      c) They have multiple acquisitions in the works that would somehow cost them $300 million and all be an operating loss purchase, as in it would cost them the remaining $300 million even your figures attempt to claim, and the companies would detract from the bottom line.

      So, I have no problem with your wild speculations, no matter how wild they may be and how absolutely untrue your basic facts may be. But damn man... at least get the basic math right!

      • 1 Reply to muaddib01721
      • Ok -- once again for the slow-minded...

        The burn rate is based on: (1) real losses (as in selling less then spending); (2) acquisitions of companies (who also have losses and will add to an already substantial negative bottom line); and (3) the on-going stock buy-back. Further, the BoD keeps padding the wallets of management, which is costing the company now over $10 million a year. Add it all up, and by year's end, this company will be history, and PG and the BoD (who will be quite rich from shareholder equity) will blame the economy and other businesses for not seeing the value of their worthless product(s).

        Bottom line: This company is history by December 31, 2002.