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Ascential Software Corp. (ASCL) Message Board

  • dumb_guy_next_door dumb_guy_next_door Oct 27, 1998 1:16 PM Flag

    where else can i look for messages

     

    other than these boards ? thanks.

    This topic is deleted.
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    • techstocks.com

      A much more professional
      discussion group. BTW - I just bought 600 more shares today
      - I don't think there is much downside risk at this
      point. At 10 cents a share earnings (let's assume they
      can keep this up) that's 40 cents annual times let's
      say a conservative p/e of 20 - that's an $8 stock. If
      they do a little better next quarter - that's a $10
      stock. I don't think the 10 cents is a fluke.

      • 1 Reply to mentges
      • Wow! You're right! www.techstocks.com has a more
        mature,
        professional discussion. Here's a recent post from there
        that
        I found particularly worthwhile:
        ***


        Finally, regarding the current prices. I think most of you
        are missing the main point here.
        Price is driven
        by supply and demand. I don't think the market has a
        very long memory
        actually, and most funds and
        analysts recognize that IFMX is a new company. IFMX

        had a very good quarterly report. Why hasn't the
        price risen?

        Because Fletcher is probably
        sitting on over 10 million shares of preferred stock
        in
        IFMX. They financed the deal over a year ago,
        where they got over 16 million shares.
        Now, they
        want their money back so they can go on to other
        things. They have
        single-handedly driven the price
        down throughout the year. They have been trying to

        unload stock, but each time they do, they drive the
        price to where it is not very
        favorable. I seem to
        recall their basis is about 4 1/2. They undoubtedly took
        out the
        huge straddle position. They knew that
        the good report would tend to drive the price of

        IFMX up, but they also understand the principles of
        supply and demand. Of course,
        they would like to
        sell all of their shares at 7 and 8, but each time
        they do, they end up
        driving the price down. So
        how do they maximize their profit. As long as there
        are
        willing buyers, Fletcher is dumping shares at 5
        1/4. The price will not rise until they are
        out of
        shares or we reach the November stike date. It was a
        good move on their part.
        They get to pocket both
        put and call premiums and they get to convert a huge
        chunk of
        their shares into cash, so they can go on
        to other investments. Including premiums, they

        are probably making around 6 per share, so they are
        making 33% in a little over a year.
        Beats the bank's
        rate. I'm sure they have calculated the daily volumes
        on IFMX and
        determined that they had enough
        shares to keep the price at 5 until the November
        strike
        date. After that, we will have to see if they
        dumped enough shares so that the supply
        slacks off.
        Only then will the price rise. Or, if Fletcher has
        enough shares, they may
        open a new staddle.


        So, if you are long and you want to make a little
        money, you might consider selling
        covered calls (Nov
        5). I'll bet this puppy closes at exactly 5 on Nov
        20.

        Of course, then we are getting near to
        end-of-year tax-loss selling, and 1999 holds the
        spector
        of Y2K spending, so they may be difficult times. I
        believe IFMX has turned
        around, and the price right
        now is more than fair. However, I would not expect
        too
        much before the first of the year, and then it
        all depends on the markets perception of
        the
        relationship of Y2K spending and it's effects on software
        companies.

        All I know is that if I ever see another stock of
        mine finance a deal with preferred
        convertible
        stock, I'm going to dump my shares and short the company
        (or buy puts).

        ***

    • techstocks.com

      A much more professional
      discussion group. BTW - I just bought 600 more shares today
      - I don't think there is much downside potential at
      this point. At 10 cents a share earnings (let's assume
      they can keep this up) that's 40 cents annual times
      let's say a conservative p/e of 20 - that's an $8
      stock. If they do a little better next quarter - that's
      a $10 stock. I don't think the 10 cents is a fluke.

    • O.K. everybody sell your IFMX stock, Fletcher's buying all he can get at $5/shr to cover his shorts.

      Dave.

 

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