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Ascential Software Corp. (ASCL) Message Board

  • WCM31 WCM31 Feb 16, 1999 4:01 PM Flag

    Those of you who know me, know I have be

    And let me tell you one thing IFMX sucks and if
    it ever gets back to 14 or 15 it will be banished
    from my portfolio. Lets face it folks we have seen the
    best for this year. We must all be a bunch of morons
    for hoping this stock will be our economic salvation.
    I gaurantee if you sold all your IFMX positions,
    put it in Dell, Cisco or Lucent you will have a lot
    more money from that than had you held IFMX. I may
    just do this even sooner.
    WCM

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    • Part II continued:


      Q: How do you
      think this forecast will play itself out in the stock
      market?


      A: For the past 18 to 24 months we have had a
      very strong rally in the big
      technology stocks,
      the Microsofts, the Dells, the MCI WorldComs. If this
      move
      is going to continue, it will spread out to
      the smaller-cap issues. If it
      doesn't, I think
      the rally will die.


      For example, Oracle
      is selling at or close to an all-time high, but

      **Informix** is selling at half its previous all-time high.
      Cisco Systems is
      extremely overpriced, but
      Premisys, another data communications company, is

      underpriced. There are lots of mid-cap, second-tier companies
      that are selling
      at big disparities to the
      leaders.


      Q: Speaking of overpriced stocks, what is your
      opinion of Internet shares?


      A: We are short
      (positioned on) most of the Internet stocks. My theory has

      been that you can pop a bubble like this without
      taking the rest of the market
      down.


      The
      Internet bubble has to pop because the supply of stock is
      so large.
      Investment bankers are filing as many
      offerings as they can, and lots of stock
      is beginning
      to unlock from IPOs done last year as insiders are
      allowed to sell
      their shares.


      Q: Has
      Internet mania inflated prices of issues that are not pure
      Web plays?


      A: The Internet has infected
      the rest a lot more than I thought it would
      have.
      Cisco, for example, has gotten an extra run because
      people believe the
      overwhelming demand will spread
      out.


      Q: What do you tell people who own shares in
      companies you consider
      overpriced or fully priced --
      the Microsofts, Intels, Ciscos and Lucents of the

      world?


      A: I tell people that
      companies like these are core holdings, that even if
      in
      the short term they go down, don't buy them so you
      can trade the shares.
      There are none I would run
      out and buy this minute, but none I would sell right

      now because they are grossly
      overpriced.


      I think people should have 30 percent to 50
      percent of their portfolio in
      these kinds of stocks.
      If you don't already own them, start dollar cost

      averaging into them over a six-month period.

      (end)

    • although it is not fresh news (Part
      I/II):

      Blue skies seen for tech stocks by newsletter // Some
      -- not Michael Murphy --
      expect the 'bubble' to
      burst
      (Austin American-Statesman; 02/06/99)



      It is pretty easy to be excited and amazed about
      exciting and amazing
      technology stocks. It is equally
      easy to be scared to death of them.


      Last
      year, the 250 stocks that make up Hambrecht & Quist's
      technology index
      rose 55.4 percent, the biggest annual
      gain ever.


      And the gains have not stopped;
      for 1999 through Jan. 29, the index, which
      does
      not include Internet stocks, was up 13.7 percent. The
      firm's Internet
      index was up 48.6 percent so far
      this year.


      All good things, of course,
      come to an end. And expectations are high and

      rising that sooner rather than later the bubble will
      burst, particularly for
      Internet stocks.



      But from his office in Half Moon Bay, Calif., Michael
      Murphy, editor of the
      California Technology Stock
      Letter, took some time recently to share his views
      on
      why technology stocks are likely to remain
      white-hot.


      Q: Last summer, technology stocks stumbled badly,
      along with everything
      else. You don't think that
      sell-off was justified, do you?


      A: No, I
      don't. There was a real fear last summer and early fall
      that
      personal computer sales were not growing and
      communications and semiconductor
      sales were never going to
      pick up. It was utterly wrong. At the time, we were

      in the process of seeing accelerating sales, which
      have continued into this
      year.


      On the
      communications side -- hardware, routers and switches -- there
      never
      was a slowdown.


      Semiconductor
      pricing bottomed in May or June, and now we are hearing
      that
      there is a real imbalance of supply and
      demand for certain, mostly higher-
      valued, chips.
      And that has translated pretty quickly into orders
      for
      semiconductor equipment. So the business
      looks like it may be approaching a
      year of normal
      growth in 1999. And 2000 may be a boom year.



      Q: Why is that?


      A: There are three legs
      to technology: communications, computing and

      biotech. All three are having very strong positive product
      cycles. It is those
      product cycles that drive the
      business, not the economy.


      At the semiconductor
      industry's forecasting meeting in Monterey, Calif.,

      earlier this month, they were talking about sales growth
      of 7 percent for 1999,
      but with sales exiting
      the year at a 20 percent growth rate, which is a

      tremendous amount of momentum.


      At the end of
      this year, we will get Windows 2000 from Microsoft,
      which
      should further personal computer spending.
      The Internet will continue its build-
      out, which
      will further communications spending. In biotech, we
      had 50 new
      drugs approved last year, almost
      double 1997, and this year we expect that 80
      new
      drugs will be approved. There are 10 profitable biotech
      companies today.
      That number will probably double this
      year. (contd-next->)

    • Thanks for the update...I hope you didn't jinx
      the board ;)

      I think we'll all be glad we held
      on...

      The technicals were looking good for so long, I
      couldn't let go. Now...we need a strong bounce @ 8 pretty
      badly. I hate it when my team is losing late in the 4th
      quarter...

      At least I dumped DELL last week. Some
      consolation...

      dick

    • Maybe it's because you're an old ex-CTSL
      subscriber. :) Anyways, just heard his take on the hotline
      tonight. Says the momemtum boys are bailing out. Stock is
      ridiculously cheap. Stated his strong opinion that they will
      have a good quarter. His #2 new money buy, almost #1.
      Noted that the market will probably continue to have
      rough sledding for next two weeks, after that the
      street will start looking ahead to the March quarter and
      the likely good earnings tech stocks will
      have.

      Regards

      Persistencepays

    • I hope you're right...I see $20 by August.

      There's a stiff, cool breeze on the street and the overvalued big caps are taking the small/mids w/good stories down.

      Hang in,

      dick

    • Look these guy's got burned by IFMX in the 20's
      and 30's. they don't beleave. They will get caught
      when the stock really moves and will chase it. If the
      shorts get caught the stock will go. I do beleave a buy
      out would be better though i think Bob F. has some
      tricks up his sleave.

    • Informix has a serious credibility problem with
      Analysts and "the Market". This unfortunately becomes a
      Catch-22 with potential customers -- they won't touch
      this.

      A buyout would be the best thing for Informix -- if
      the buyout was by someone credible!

    • Hmm - another good reason not to use MS
      software?

      They should look at the Web solution from Sybase,
      which include Sybase PowerDynamo and High Availability
      solutions with Sybase ASE (or any database you prefer).
      PowerDyanmo uses ODBC and native connectivity and easily
      out-features competitive products. Lacks good marketing, etc
      (as usual).

    • I'm a first timer on here and have my own small
      stake in IFMX. Like many of you, I keep feeling this
      stock should fly. However, check out this
      article...
      http://www.briefing.com/suretrade/street.htm

    • I can't get into Scottrade. I keep getting the
      error:

      Microsoft OLE DB Provider for ODBC Drivers error '80004005'


      [Microsoft][ODBC SQL Server Driver]Communication link failure


      /index.asp, line 14

      Dave.

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