If everything will go according to the plan and Greece does not default as promised...NBG will fly very high. NBG's investment portfolio is made to the large extend of Greek bonds that is earning them double yield as compared to Dec 31 2009 the last day of q4. So when they report in the end of May, the question of Greece defaulting would be solved, hopefully, and NBG's earnings will show greater earnings due to the higher interest earned on the Greek bonds.
Another way of looking at it is that, people are pumping the Greek default drama because of the extra money the are making at the expense of Greek government paying higher interest and with simplicity and logic, longer they pump these news more money they are making. The question is who? No brainer...same guys that were at the wheel of orchestrating world wide recession Goldman Sacks and Company. Ironically, as long as the Greece does not default, NBG is the same boat as GS because presumably both hold lots of Greek Bond.
If there was a real chance of Greece defaulting, their issues would not be oversubscribed. Who wants bonds that pay higher yield if they were going to default in the near future
Newly appointed Petros Christodoulou, head of the Greek public debt management agency, studied finance in Athens and at New York's Columbia University, held senior executive positions with several major financial institutions, including Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and, most recently, the National Bank of Greece(treasurer).
The key is how hardly it tanks before the Hedgies and Money Markets realize that they had enough and this usually happens when the market just stops buying negative news and shoots up...I am not saying NBG will not drop not, it may and it may not...no one really knows but one thing for sure the drop to the big part of it is unwarranted