Important TA points:
1) Inflection point was passed by the end of Jan, when MA50 changed the course from negative to positive
2) Share price will pass MA200 (today is $2.32) by not later then next week
3) MA50 and MA200 will cross in middle-to-end of Match at $3.0 - $3.3 potentially exploding PPS to $4.5 territory stock was in Mar 2010
4) Consensus is that last Q earnings were very good. Hope this one could be even better
My opinion, they do not have to.
First it is overkill for TA which is not totally precise science anyway. It will not improve predictions, and typically not change the value of SMA substantially.
And second, this will create two SMAs (!!), one for those who kept the stock during distribution, and another (for much larger audience) who did not (which we use and which is SMA by definition). Partially (or completely not yet clear) the distribution and dividends ARE included in the commonly accepted SMA. So let's stick to this standard SMA definition and the number i have mentioned above $2.29.
In summary, I am not fully sure that your SMA is not an error yet, but if not, then keep an eye and let me know on possible situations where Tradestation way defined SMA could be useful for ultimately pedantic people. LOL
I checked your idea, and see a very similar picture:
-we are in uptrend, the rate of price increase since early January is $0.07/week; (7cents a week)
-it is supported by 2 small dips, jan27 and feb15;
-this make me feel the shortterm cycle is 12-14 working days;
-next shortterm top expected in the first days of March, at cca. $2.4-2.7 price
-by middle March we can get $3.0-3.1 if the Greek Gods keep the rate steady
-since weekly internals improved a lot, and are strong, we might get it with 70-80% chance.
The last uptrend (2009 marc-nov) had a rate of increase 13 cents/week, so it made from $2.11 to $7.00 in 8cca. 35 weeks.
So, your shortterm expectation is justified, even if you get "fire" here.
Anyways, my target price is $6.5-7.5, so I expect to hold at least a 8-12 months.