-The capital increase due to crisis was cca. 3b Euro; By Basel III rules, this will allow (at 7% gearing ratio) a Balance Sheet increase of 3/0.07= 42 B Euro; that is, at 1.35 currency rate $57B Growth;
-Just to have a perspective, the current balance sheet total is cca. 70B;
-So, after all losses are written down, NBG has a clear path to grow, without further dilution, how much? Well, 57B/70B= 80% ;
-Since bank balalnce sheet total usually grows by twice that of GDP growth, (and Greece will grow nicely after this crisis hiccup at a 4% pace), NGB will be able to grow up to 180% of its pre-crisis 2007 balanceSheet total; consequently, earnings; and consequently Stock price;
-Conclusion: if the current minimum realistic share price is cca. $7.5, the maximum price projection should be 7.5*180%= $13.50. Yes, a couple of year later, let say in 2017.
Anyway: my short message to the panicky, sissy NBG shareholders, who want to sell in panic: Sell them now to us, we are here to buy them all. The grand-grand-grand childrens of those standing at Marathon, will prevail nicely. The rest should run.