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National Bank of Greece S.A. Message Board

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  • jpomper jpomper Feb 12, 2011 2:01 PM Flag

    Calculate NBG Projections

    -The capital increase due to crisis was cca. 3b Euro;
    By Basel III rules, this will allow (at 7% gearing ratio) a Balance Sheet increase of 3/0.07= 42 B Euro;
    that is, at 1.35 currency rate $57B Growth;

    -Just to have a perspective, the current balance sheet total is cca. 70B;

    -So, after all losses are written down, NBG has a clear path to grow, without further dilution, how much?
    Well, 57B/70B= 80% ;

    -Since bank balalnce sheet total usually grows by twice that of GDP growth,
    (and Greece will grow nicely after this crisis hiccup at a 4% pace),
    NGB will be able to grow up to 180% of its pre-crisis 2007 balanceSheet total; consequently, earnings; and consequently Stock price;

    -Conclusion: if the current minimum realistic share price is cca. $7.5, the maximum price projection should be 7.5*180%= $13.50.
    Yes, a couple of year later, let say in 2017.

    Anyway: my short message to the panicky, sissy NBG shareholders, who want to sell in panic:
    Sell them now to us, we are here to buy them all.
    The grand-grand-grand childrens of those standing at Marathon, will prevail nicely.
    The rest should run.