THeo, Jpomper, B.Sam!!! I have a question!! ^^ Please!
Hi, to answer your question: 1) The Greek bonds yields on free market are currently cca. 8-9% above German bunds. And this "junk-bond rate" is persistent since the start of the crisis, about 2.5 years. So, Greek Republic already paid their bond-holders cca. 2.5years*8%=20% over Germany in this time period.
2) The talk about haircut is about a year old. But I dont think it will ever come close to serious consideration. Why? Because, do you think Germany and France (and the rest of EU) with IMF, gave the rescue package to Greece to institute a haircut ??
No, they gave it on clear and reasonable conditions, for everybody to see on the internet. They gave it not only to save Greece from 10 years extrem GDP fall and hardship, but also to save their own banks, including BNP, DB, etc. Their banks hold Greek bonds, and they dont want them to lose a lot of money by --without rescue-- letting the Greek state to resort to a final and desparate one-sided solution: make a haircut.
Instead, they offered a package, lend the money on much better conditions than Greece could get on the free market; and give it only as long as the Greek gov. is in compliance to the contract.
3) So, dont worry about haircuts. They never happen.
Previously, the East-Europeen states in 1989, after communism collapsed, were all in similarly bad economic shape, they also lied in their statistics, and all considered a haircut. None of them did.
Why? Because the "loss" would have been much higher than the gain on haircut; it was then much better to take the slow and orderly process of paying all debts back, or at least service them for a long time.
Never fall in the "haircut is around the corner " trap in case of state-bonds. This is a "media overblown" hype. Nothing else. This reflects the bad mood, not the real course of action.
After wars, yes, this can happen, in collapsed and ceased countries, like Ottoman Empire, or Habsburg Empire.
So, if I had, I would worry for Lybian bonds.
But I have shares in the largest bank of a EU country, Euro zone, which already florished 2500 years ago. And will again in 5 years.
Just wait 2 years, and all haircut worries will be forgotten; and nobody will understand why anybody have taken seriously such a nonsense.