The NBG-A preferreds are on sale then. I appreciate the analysis done on NBG and any potential haircut. The stress test though could put more downward pressure on the common AND the preferred. It may be worthwhile to wait to pull the trigger on the preferreds.
Have you done any guesstimates of stress test for NBG?
Based on the investor presentation, the company has 13.7 billion in sovereign holdings, and I applied the rumored (I believe it is a rumor) 17% losses to this and wind up with Tier 1 capital still above 10 percent.
We all know that NBG is pretty solid. The near term hinges on stress tests results. Ireland results may drag banks down a bit. When I saw the assumed stress test loss factor for sovereign would be limited to 17 percent (maybe a month ago), I was quite relieved.
I may look at this closer, but the current capitalization combined with a reasonable loss factor assumed for sovereign should mean no or little capitalization needed for NBG.
I've been tracking IRE for a length of time, for an entry. Still waiting, and no hurry till smoke clears.