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National Bank of Greece S.A. Message Board

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  • diabeticinvestor diabeticinvestor May 21, 2011 2:53 AM Flag

    Unbelievable ignorance

    Greece has no choice but to default. Those Chinese made Zeus salt shakers they sell to tourists won't cut it. Get real. There will be no bailout.

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    • You are wrong and perhaps even been misinformed. First of all, even Fitch has acknowledged that Greece WILL NOT default whether through restructuring/reprofiling of their debt. Fitch has given B+ to reflect just that:

      [“The B+ rating reflects the belief the EU and IMF will come up with FRESH FUNDS for Greece and that its bonds will not be subject to "soft restructuring" or "re-profiling."] –Financial News

      Secondly, according to Institutional Investor:

      [“In the near term, there will be a new rescue package,” agrees Nick Kounis, Head of Macro Research at ABN AMRO. Europe, Kounis argues, is not ready to face the consequences of debt restructuring. Such a move would have a “significant impact” on the whole of the European banking sector. At the same time, he explains, investors would likely speculate that other European periphery states, like Ireland and Portugal, would follow Greece’s lead. “Policy makers have the Lehman Brothers’ experience deep in their minds,” Kounis says, and are unwilling to risk that level of economic fallout.”]

      In Conclusion:

      What probably will happen is Greece would buy back its own debt on today’s discounted price. The funding for this buyback will be provided by EFSF acting as a "Senior Lender" which means in a case of “default” EFSF will get paid in full before bondholders, therefore at no risk to the ESFS. This idea of “leveraged buybacks” is the most credible and a likely outcome, which is similar to the concept that was once proposed by Paul Krugman in 1988 for emerging countries affected by the debt-overhang problem. [ref: Angelo Baglioni]

    • No choice but default presumes that traders in the market are left to short or sell Greek debt such that no one is willing to buy new Greek debt.

      Greece can cover the debt obligation given reasonable terms, like the ability to sell new debt at current debt interest rates.

      The question is whether Greece cannot handle the current debt level or whether traders and markets are actually forcing a default.

      As for the ignorance, I will say the EU system as it stands is a bit messy, but for me it is comforting to see that we in the USA don't have all the ignorant politicians and finance leaders in the world.