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National Bank of Greece S.A. Message Board

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  • jpomper jpomper Jul 22, 2011 3:51 AM Flag

    Break 1.5 and it's moonshot time for us

    Lets take a look at the pro's and cons to invest into NBG:

    1) Fundamentally, their 5 year average price is cca. $7.1. We could expect to hit $6-7 range again, as this is the fundamentally minimum price target, with 95% probability in 3 years. They have great business in Turkey, and in Emerging Balkan countries. So, they have above average (above 80% of all banks in the region) potential, so I estimate a 50% chance to hit and surpass their alltime max. price of $13.

    Really a 10bagger from now.

    2)Technically, NBG is at the bottom of a classic A-B-C shape downward correction. If the upward shape remains a classic 1-2-3-4-5 wave sequence, then we might expect
    1 wave: up to $3.0 (in cca. 2 quarters)
    2 wave: correction to $2.0 (in cca. 1-2 quarters)
    3 wave: up to $6.0 (in 3-5 quarters)
    4 wave correction to $4.7 (in 3 quarters)
    5 wave: up to 7.0-13.0 (in 8-13 quarters)

    depending on the economic recovery environment.

    3) Currently we have cca. 15M shares short position. They must cover in a short time to prevent huge losses. Judging from yesterday's volume causing a 0.18 jump, I estimate that the shorties should be able to cover in cca. 10 days, and this should be enough additional buying power to drive up the price to $2.0 - 2.5 range.

    Anybody holding NBG shares are advised to keep his/her position at least for this period and price range, before selling.

    4) Institutional investors will start to drift back in weeks to build NGB positions. This will be the fuel for the 3. wave in the next 1-1.5 year, and this should drive up the price to cca. $6-7 range.

    I advise to hold your position for this 1-2 year period, since you have extremly low probability to find another investment with this kind of upward potential anywhere else.

    CONS: New GGB bond problems might emerge. The Eu banking system might melt down. Both are low probability events.