and NGB passed it with comfortable results above the 5% Tier1 Capital Limit Ratio requirements, in adverse Environment lasting until 2012. So, even in case of Adverse scenario....despite looming GGB partial 21% defaults, NBG will still maintain 7.7% Core Tier1 capital ratio.
Here are the important NBG numbers:
1)2010 Core Tier1 Capital Ratio to RiskWeightAssets: 11.9% 2)2012BaseLine Scenario, Tier1 ratio: 13.6% 3)2012Adverse scenario, Tier1 ratio: 7.7%
Now, take a look at other "stable" country EU banks, their numbers are: Barclays: 10,10,7.3 RBS: 9.7,9.1,6.3 DeutscheBank: 8.8,8.5, 6.5 CommerzBank: 10, 8.7, 6.4
Summary: NBG is more stable than the any of the above banks according to EU stresstest. Just hold your shares strong. NBG will survive despite all destructive talks here, and will prosper. I still think it will be 10bagger in 2015.
You are exactly correct that the stress tests fail to capture additional risk factors of NBG.
On the other point, the 10 bagger. That would be market cap of 50 billion EU; I have seen no earnings projections supporting equity of 50 billion. IMO, common of 3 is a no-brainer, 4-5 can be reasonably show, but how some are coming up with 10 baggers I cannot decipher.
Disclosure: very long NBG-pa preferred. May re-enter common also.