I am a US citizen retired and residing in Greece.I have a small stake in NBG and in perusing this board am disappointed with the lack of any factual meaningful posts that may help a current stockholder or potential investor make valid? decision on investing or speculating with this stock.This,by the way ,holds true with the boards or other stock that I own ,or consider buying.It is in this spirit that I am posting my two cents worth.
I will not comment on the terrible economic situation in Greece. Everyone has his own observations and conclusions.Mine are that civil unrest will probably not allow the current government to enforce the needed reforms (many of which are unjust and more importantly anti growth) leading to either a controlled or chaotic default of its debt.If such event were to occur it would adversely affect NBG share price.But how severely?Using yahoo Dec 31 2010 info current Nbg price/share is close to .30 cents below book price.While I can understand that Nbg may be valuing the Greek government bonds not marked to market but marked to fantasy ,how much lower will the price/share go if a 50% shaving of bond prices occurs?Fact: NBG is the oldest and largest (I am not certain that with the recent joining of alpha and euro banks this still applies)Greek bank. Nbg is undergoing a cost reduction closing many unprofitable or superfluous branches. My bottom line is :Selling at current levels is an emotional action and therefore unwise.While I cannot preclude further downside and therefore would not personally add to my current exposure,if (when?)my anticipated Greek bankruptcy occurs, I will be aggressively be adding to my holding at whatever P/S Nbg is trading at that time
Any response based on reliable facts is appreciated.
I thought I would bump this one back to the top today because it seems like crymore is getting very board and bumping a lot of very old post, some as old as a year ago.
This one is just more relevant and current.
On a side note a larger Greek debt PSI hair cut is in the works. Also a larger stability fund to prop up euro banks. "the size of the hair cut is to be determined by what the banks can endure not what the Greek Government may require". "35%-50%".
Not to make this post worthless here are some relevant and worthwhile things to read:
Slovak parliament ratifies EFSF expansion
Greece Disbursement Expected In Next 10 Days
Task Force For Greece Progresses With Technical Assistance Actions
Greek Banks’ Administrations Won’t Change Regardless FSF Resorting
(ATE Bank running out of money) Troika-Greek State To Decide On ATEbank Capital Increase
^^ See crymore, it is not that hard to post things that are worthwhile for people stilling willing to read this bb that you are ruining. But once you undoubtedly reply to this, no one will open it because it will say you were the last person to comment on this thread. So maybe these are just things for you to read so you will stop spamming things that do not matter. ^^
Eh, well... I tried. Guess your back to the old you. So much for reasoning.
And I have already done something about it, just read above ^^
More on your level though... The only thing that was god like was my finishing move on you.
EPIC Fail on you.
Would you like to cry more please?
(Now I have beaten on your own level as well. Ouch!)
''I am a US citizen retired and residing in Greece.''
There in lies your first problem. Why not just put one of those handwritten signs that says ''kick me'' and pin it to your butt?
Why retire to Greece when there are so many other far less expensive and beautiful places to retire to? Only Cretins retire to some place in Europe.
And worst of all, you message is too wordy to keep anyone's attention. Keep it brief and to the point.
My advice, check out Zimbabwe, I hear with an inflation rate of over 600 percent you will be able to live like an Aristocrat.
voice- that telling him dr.cry is a sick, sick, maN HE IS A dental not a dr. he just think he is dr.he is call out for help, do not be to hard on him, could go off the edge. thank you dr.carl
I do appreciate your not using the caps-lock as much as I have seen here. I also appreciate you trying to make your point without lashing out as much as I have also seen in the past.
I do agree there are some seriously extreme points of view about the unknown direction of this stock or the country it primarily reside in. However, I have to lump all the extremes into the same category, your negative outlook is no better than the over the top and all to common threw the roof claims we also see on here... Topo and friends.
Things tend to meet somewhere in the middle more often than not. Everyone here gets to find their own truth, even the pundits and their articles we all reference.
I have seen Fool.com say its a screaming buy opportunity and say things can only get better and not worse, then the next week say its all down hill from here. I have seen MarketWatch.com post, at the same time on the same day, articles declaring opposite points on this stock and Greece. Yahoo is no different as well.
Your totally entitled to declare what you have found to be the truth based on the information you have gathered. But, its the screaming it here in all capitals and the name calling towards otherwise anonymous people and finger pointing that detracts from any credibility you may feel you have in the eyes of your audience. I'm not saying your detractors do not do the same. They do.
By trolling what I am suggesting is the frequency of your postings on here and the extreme nature of your replies to otherwise equally entitled opinionated people. They are more common than the yelling of the $1/$2/$3/$50 claims. Your claims are not baseless, trust me, I know there is foundation to your claims its in 4 out of 5 articles or new wires on the topic. But, it becomes muted by how over zealous and constant it can be here. I have seen you pull threads off topic here quite often. This is in fact so common and unproductive that it makes this BB of no real use other than to find the occasional article or website I have not read, or just to gauge how bullish or bearish things are looking for a given day.
Current price/share is important... today. But what we are all arguing over is what it will be. Its interesting to see what kind of haircut is being priced in right now. I could thank a number of people here for their research, math and insight.To me the current pps and % of haircut reflects a possible modest upside potential in an unknown time frame. Your outlook maybe different.
Oh ya... NOBODY! LMAO!!WTF!OMG!!WHAT!!!YOU and YOURS!!!! STUPID!!! YOUR WRONG!! BOARD CERTIFIED!!! and all the other dribble your camp normally finish things up with.
I'm just asking you to tone it down. People may start to read what you actually have to say if they have not put you on ignore already.
Political brinkmanship. Ghostbuster quote is appropriate.
Dr. Peter Venkman: This city is headed for a disaster of biblical proportions.
Mayor: What do you mean, "biblical"?
Dr Ray Stantz: What he means is Old Testament, Mr. Mayor, real wrath of God type stuff.
Dr. Peter Venkman: Exactly.
Dr Ray Stantz: Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies! Rivers and seas boiling!
Dr. Egon Spengler: Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes...
Winston Zeddemore: The dead rising from the grave!
Dr. Peter Venkman: Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria!
Mayor: All right, all right! I get the point!
1)Greece’s bankruptcy not only means that Greek government securities’ holders do not get back their money invested. Also means that most constituents of the state operation (the local governments, plus all transportation/ water/ electric utilities, most companies and private persons) will not be able to meet their debts and obligations.
From that moment NOT only Greek teachers, doctors, police, army, ministry and local government employees will NOT receive a salary, just as the seniors do NOT expect retirement checks in time, if at all. The ATMs are emptied in minutes.
The local banks are stuck holding government securities, generating an immediate liquidity crisis, devalue the Greek banking system, into total collapse. Thus the savings of depositors is totally lost, because the Greek government deposit insurance or guarantee becames worthless.
Bankcards become trash. Nobody will be able to withdraw some money. And can not pay in shops.The gas station will run out of fuel, as well as food from the grocery store. The doctors will strike and not work. People die.
Greece is practically at full stop.
For at least a decade. Dramatic drop into poverty stands ahead in the whole country.
2)The problem for Europe is that in this case, the disaster might not stop at the Greek border, but will penetrate with great speed and momentum into the entire euro zone. Europe faces a scale 10 financial earthquake.
The channels for the spread of infection, of course, are very fast. Such a scenario would fast paralise the banking system. Indeed, the international banks, which invested money in Greece, will suffer hundreds of billions of euros of capital loss. They will soon be forced to lock the credit lines toward other banks, which will have to do the same against other banks.....panicking all banks, private investors, depositors all over Europe.
And when the banks no longer trust each other, they do not lend to each other. The international financial markets freezes. This in turn means that all financial institutions close down for clients.
Poor countries with weak banks start usually to panic, and withdraw retail funds. But since the retail and corporate deposits and loans are allocated and shared in the form of inter-bank market, these banks can not borrow bridging withdrawals, spawning an immediate liquidity crisis. This spreads to all financial institutions, they must by law be put themselfs into bankruptcy.
European countries, of course, guarantee the safety of their deposits, but the collapse of the banking system would create as big and widespread financial stress, that the governments of the countries whose banking systems is in collapse, must start to save THEIR OWN banks. ABANDON all COOPERATION. Thus, the escalating self-fulfilling panic speads through all Europe, the euro zone crisis then leads to complete DISINTEGRATION.
Of course, Angela Merkel, Nicolas Sarkozy and Jose Manuel Barroso repeated daily that they want to prevent disintegration of the euro zone. There is no question that if the Euro zone falls apart in this process, an alternative to build from scratch would be a huge cost to all Member States.
But the currency union dissolution is probably not will be managed from Brussels. It will not be an orderly process, but an uninvited guest breaking all doors as a result of financial apocalypse. The euro area break-up will cost in human factors as well as in money and capital market huge LOSS. It will force new trends, will define the politics for the next 15 years all over the world.
to be continued
Some new factors for you to consider. No one wants Greece to fail... No one. Not even Crymore.
China purchasing 23% stake in port:
USA giving $350 Million contract to Greek company to build a power plant in Iraq:
Japan moving in to buy more EFSF bonds to help:
While the rest of the developed world cannot step on the toes of the EU, they can help indirectly and behind closed doors.
Then you have each euro nation's central bank putting pressure on its own banks to accept the current haircut terms. Sure Finland is dragging some feet, but every time push comes to shove and a vote must be taken on a political level no one wants to be the cause of a meltdown and the plan always passes. Nor does anyone want the fallout from a meltdown. Sure you can make a million bucks when it all hits the fan, but once the domino's all start to fall it will hurt you too in every other possible way.
Now we have changes to VAT receipts, we have tax evasion money coming back in from pay checks. We have so far half of the EU nations passing the latest bail out package arrangement. They are finally getting this thing bottled up. Real momentum is forming internal and external.
And your right, selling now would only be based on emotion. It would also be a vote for failure. The bank has obligations to its investors but by investing you also have also created an obligation to the bank. Your investment gets used for one thing or another, pulling that does have repercussions. This was all risky when you set out with that first buy order but you should have weighed it then and many of those reasons are still valid, your just beginning to loose sight of them in the noise of negative news selling more papers.
As an investor I know I have the backing of every world government, every central bank, and and by a number of sizable investors also looking and waiting to make a profit on the way out.
The only real question I have is how long does it take and how long should I wait?
I do have to say, the part about civil unrest leading to a default is an awfully huge dotted line your drawing. I understand anything can happen, but I still have less faith in that than people getting their act together and moving forward with what is placed before them to work with.
Wow!I asked for facts but did not expect your input.First, thanks for your very informative and thoughtful post.I have no way to evaluate the validity and reliability of the data that you provide,but your thoroughness and conclusions reveal an informative and mature individual who is certain of his facts before speaking.
It appears to me that you are envisioning two possible alternatives to the social structure of Greece (and Europe possibly the world in general)on one hand and the future of NBG on the other.The first is an Armageddon scenario leading to,as you pointed out to significant decrease in quality of and loss of life.This is a topic much too complex to address on this board.I will say ,however,that in my opinion it has a fair chance of becoming reality even if our policy makers find a way for a soft landing of decades old credit cycle.At the same time I would like to disagree with your doomsday scenario for Greece.If indeed Greece cannot fund its domestic obligations it will be forced ,whether with or without EU consent, to return to its previous monetary unit,the drachma.Will this entail hardship and quality of life hit? absolutely.More so than currently experienced ? I wonder.If Greece can solve its tax evasion and downsizing of its public sector problems it has the means to become a prosperous Florida of the EU --Outstanding climate,hospitable citizens, intelligent and hardworking people (yes hard working ,most in private setting work 10 to 12 hours a day),self sufficiency in food are some pluses.
I did not mean to digress so much from the main focus of this board-the prospects for NBG.It appears to me that the details provided in your post confirms to me that the risks rewards equation for the PPS of NBG in the 1 to 3 time frame is very positive.Even in your most pessimistic scenario there will always be a need for a bank and NBG is one of the two or three best,if not the most sound Greek bank.
Again thanks for your input