Actually this was a shock to me. I thought NBG will survive by dilution or by selling finsbank.
Their total exposure to greek govt is 23.4B, will you believe it. In worst case scenario they are expecting 3.8B where 1.8B is on GGB. Which means they are expecting a loss/writedown of 2B on non GGB. Now take a best scenario for greece, as per greece finance minister, like 50% haircut on bonds, this will result in another 3B loss on GGB alone. Not sure what will happen to non GGB exposure.
I am long and after looking at H1 presentation I am very scared.
On H1 page 39, the 12.7B GGB inscope, at PSI (21%) markdown should correspond in the first culumn to 12.7*0.21=2.667B instead of 1.833B. I think this 1.833B EBA number is just something to replace with actual numbers, depending on bailout conditions.
At 50% markdown this is 6.35B. If we must add some more loss on nonGGBs over the expected 2.0B in the chart, then even with Finansbank sell plus 4B dilution, NBG can become history.
We are at my option 3 scenario. And we still dont know anything about Titlos's future.