Share price to tangible book value is way too high.
In millions Euros and shares except per share data in Euros.
NBG 2013 Q2 Balance Sheet, p17 shows the following:
110,434 Assets - 102,835 liabilities = 7,599 nominal book value.
Subtracting 2,026 intangible assets (Goodwill, etc) gives tangible book value of 5,573.
Dividing by 2,397 total shares (after recapitalization) gives tangible BV/share of 2.32.
Athens share price on Mon 9/16 close was 3.11 Euros, which gives tangible Price/Book of 1.34.
Shaky banks like NBG often sell for 50% of tangible BV, or 1.16, so NBG would have to drop 63% to reach that level.
I am not predicting that will happen, but 50% of tangible BV is usually the floor when risky banks get bad news or a bad qtr. I think NBG is on a slow road to recovery, but the above data shows the stock is already richly priced, so big price gains in the near future are not likely. I know this will enrage the financially illiterate bull investors on this board, whose sophisticated response will be pounding the table and hurling insults w/o credible data to back their opinion.
PS. Goodwill should be subtracted from nominal book value b/c it is just an accounting gimmick that is never included in core operating results.
I heard people should never look to the future when investing. Also, I'd revisit your definition of Goodwill. Your general calculation is correct, but your reasoning is not, which leads me to believe you are regurgitating what you've heard instead of doing your own work.
dansparkman, another financially illiterate bull: Writes essays, no data.
dansparkman says ". . . I'd revisit your definition of Goodwill. Your general calculation is correct, but your reasoning is not, which leads me to believe you are regurgitating what you've heard instead of doing your own work."
He says I should revisit my definition of goodwill, but he can't exert himself to say what's wrong w/ it. And he's too lazy and incompetent to do a google search about the issue that would confirm my point that goodwill does not belong in tangible book value.
He says, "Your general calculation is correct, but your reasoning is not," but he can't exert himself to say where my reasoning is wrong. Lazy and incompetent.
He then claims to be able to read minds. He says I am regurgitating others work w/o doing my own work, but he can't exert himself to offer any evidence to support that slander. I lay out detailed financial data and logic, while he writes meandering essays with neither, but he accuses me of not doing work. Typical of the adolescent bulls on this board that are giving Yahoo Message Boards a bad name.
If you moved his dinner plate six inches, he'd starve to death.
Here's something I've noticed Buch.
Now and then a short shows up on a Yahoo msg board talking about how "overvalued" X or Y stock is. Usually he has a very short posting history and all the posts he makes are on this one msg board - kinda like you, Buch.
Often the short posts the same "analysis" over and over in repeat messages on the board. His analysis is supposed to demonstrate that the stock is a sell, not a buy.
Then said stock makes a sudden move up. And keeps going up. It might go up 50% or 100% at a time when no one was expecting it.
Then the short disappears. He stops making his repeat posts trying to demonstrate said stock is overvalued.
Now I find that strange, Buch.
Seems to me that if the short was right and the stock was overvalued, then it must be way more overvalued after it makes a 50% or 100% move up. But after the stock makes that move, the short isn't there trying to prove to everybody it's overvalued anymore; he just disappears.
Hope that won't happen to you Buch.
If one day soon NBG makes a big move you weren't expecting, and you disappear from this board, I just want to let you know that our repeat "analysis" posts about NBG's "real" book value will be sorely missed.
Hope you'll be here to post this same info again next week. Until then...
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Unfortunately your prediction proved wrong:
"But after the stock makes that move, the short isn't there trying to prove to everybody it's overvalued anymore; he just disappears."
The stock has moved up significantly as you predicted, debunking buchanans appeals for everyone to sell to avoid the 'catastrophe' that his 'data predicts'. Yet, he persists on, still banging the same tired song. Check his post history, a string of red thumbs down.
Another financially illiterate bull that speaks, but says nothing. Meaningless meandering essays w/ no data to support his bull position. Even when you lay out the data for him, he doesn't respond w/ rebuttal data, he just writes another meandering essay. Where is my data wrong, Jup?
Typical of the financially illiterate bulls on this board. Reminds me of pajama investors living in their mother's basement.
buch, No argument except this appears to be a special situation because Greece is in a severe depression just the staet of a recovery from these depths could bring a strong and rapid recovery to NBG.