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National Bank of Greece S.A. Message Board

  • buchanan_1 buchanan_1 Oct 14, 2013 3:14 PM Flag

    Greek Banks Skyrocket in April-May then Crash. Mania or Conspiracy?

    My post of 10/12 "Greek Banks Skyrocket in April-May then Crash & Burn," had a table that listed dates and prices that showed that there was a 6 week mania in April-May for the Athens index and 3 Greek banks, followed by a 6 week crash & burn below the start. Jeffreylhook disagreed and said it was a conspiracy by NBG management and he gave conspiracy sources. Here is the uptake of the debate.

    jeffreylhook, 10/13/13
    [He quotes Buchanan.] "if you use the Compare function on Yahoo charts and compare GD.AT Athens index vs all three banks on separate charts, the three bank manias coincide with the GD.AT index mania. An index rising 40% in six weeks then crashing below its start point in six weeks is a mania, which drove all three Greek bank manias. (YTD chart span gives good picture.)"

    6 months suffices. It begins at the April low, shows the parabolic high and the quick decline. TPEIR and NBG do match up almost identically, but ALBKY doesn't. It didn't decline as sharply and even rose slightly in May after it's initial drop from its peak, but your point is good.
    Where do you see an "Athens Index mania"? In the YF 6-month comparison display the Athens Index Composite (GD.AT) is almost flat relative to the rampaging bank stocks.
    "Buchanan: So how can you blame that on NBG management or on a reverse split maneuver?"
    Did you read the threads I cited?

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    • bump

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • Of course banks have highs & lows, just like the Athens General Index of stocks over past yr. The ASE:IND has almost reached its high of May and the long-term trend is intact. Looking at a 3-yr chart you can see ASE is resuming the uptrend that began in June 2012.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • "Here is the uptake of the debate"

      Good idea to start a new thread to separate the topic of the "mania" (parabolic assent and descent) from the obscuring "pyroclastic flow" of my OCD-type table formatting tests...

      As a holder of NBG I can't say I'm unhappy to see that you were right about TPEIR, NBG, and ALBKY all matching each other on the "Eiffel Tower" upslope in April and May. As I pointed out, ALBKY declined less severely than the others. I didn't think the Athens Composite Index had seemed to surge in the same way as the three bank stocks had done. (Chris Kimble's the originator of the amusing "Eiffel Tower" phrase as a synonym for "parabolic price rise.")

      I don't claim to understand the details which were argued in the 5-13 threads which I identified. I'd not been confident those participants really DID have the expertise they implied they had, but I'm simply unable to call their bluffs, if they were bluffing. Their arguments made sense to my ignorant mind but, what do I know? I did go to the NYT in search of what I expected would be a "blow the doors off" exposé, a tour de force of investigative journalism, as Jodie Britt had suggested, and I didn't find the article to be so shocking. It didn't even seem clearly to allege that bank mgt had expropriated the warrants, let alone underhandedly. She may have exaggerated the alleged "vacuuming up" of the warrants. She wasn't very good at identifying sources of comment explicitly; she'd only mentioned "the New York Times." Maybe I didn't find the right Times "copy." I'm annoyed now to find that I don't seem to have saved a local copy of the report and I can't even find any record of Jodie's reference to it, so it looks like I lose this point.

      The warrants seemed to have the most value then. It'll be interesting to see what effect they have when they "hit the market" on or c. 12-27-13 in the 1st 6 mo "execution" (jargon?).

      • 1 Reply to jeffreylhook
      • PS to my msg "Good idea to start a new thread..."
        Does anyone else have such a large data directory which branches so extensively that you must search it with an engine because you can't possibly remember where everything is, even if you use the most severe "discipline" for filing content? I've mentioned "File Locator Pro" by Dave Vest, of the UK, dba Mythicsoft, Ltd. It's a "lifesaver." It WORKS! It just searched almost 133K files to find lost content, looking for a few keywords. If you have a large data directory , & if you're accustomed to the use of such an engine, then you've often experienced the stubborn REFUSAL to give up when you're confident you've saved some content which you can't find later. Didn't a Biblical parable feature a woman who lost a coin and then swept out her entire house until she found the coin? Yeah, I know what that means. I found my "lost" Jodie Britt NYT reference. It's in this 2-msg thread: "eyoelg • Jun 27, 2013 9:12 AM; How does one buy warrants for NBG?" Jodie said: "If you read the NYTimes article, the warrants were all stolen by insiders, who lined their pockets with, I'm guessing about 40% of the available warrants. (Based on that alone, I would buy this one...)." (Yes, she said she'd BUY. Because few warrants remained "in the open market"? Maybe... I'm guessing.) Notice, as I said, she didn't provide a good citation of the NYT content which she mentioned. I found this NYT report. I commented in my "Current Conditions, All Greek Banks" file that this was the only NYT content about Greek banks which had been recent at that time. It may be what Jodie was referring to: " Greek Plan May Reward Some Bank Executives; By Landon Thomas Jr.; Published: June 25, 2013: LONDON — Even as European taxpayers grimace at the escalating cost of bailing out Greece’s banking system, THE BANKS’ TOP EXECUTIVES ARE POISED TO POTENTIALLY STRIKE IT RICH..." etc.

    • No, your charts that start at six months on 4/15 instead of January do not suffice to get a proper view and understanding of how fast the stocks were dropping before they suddenly reversed direction on 4/5 to start a mania. That reversal of direction is quite dramatic and you miss it and don't understand what really happened if you start the chart at 4/15.

      The GD.AT Athens index mania started at 822 on 4/5, my stating point; your 6 month span starts at 925 on 4/15. The index peaked at 1152 on 5/17, so the correct rise was 40% from 4/5, not 25% from 4/15, as your starting point indicates. If you don't think a 40% rise in a country's major index in 6 weeks is a mania, then you are trading on a different planet than I am.

      The reason the Athens index looks relatively flat when Compared to the spiking bank stocks on the same chart is b/c the banks were rising 150% to 300%, so the chart had to flatten the GD.AT index to keep the bank peaks on the chart. Didn't you figure that out? Create a GD.AT chart by itself w/o comparison to a bank chart and you'll see how sharp a 40% rise in 6 weeks looks, especially for an index.

      ALBKY (Alpha OTC) rocketed up like the other banks, but declined slower. But my table shows that by 7/15 it had also declined in 6 weeks from its 5/17 peak to below its 4/5 starting value. That’s a big, fast drop. You're hair-splitting if you think that disproves my mania theory.
      If you don't think the Alpha OTC drop was fast enough to fit my mania theory, checkout Alpha on the Athens exchange (ALPHA.AT). It went up and down like a rocket.

      I'll checkout your NBG conspiracy theory, but first tell me if you still buy the conspiracy theory over my mania theory (and how do you feel about flying saucers?).

      • 1 Reply to buchanan_1
      • "No, your charts that start at six months"

        You're trying hard, aren't you, to maintain the standard of Yahoo Finance forums? :Over-reaction, bellicosity, quibbling, ad hominem attacks, etc. ad nauseam.
        "you miss it and don't understand what really happened" Oh, speak, oh oracle! Speak!
        "so the correct rise was 40% from 4/5, not 25% from 4/15, as your starting point indicates" Is this quibbling?
        " If you don't think a 40% rise in a country's major index in 6 weeks is a mania, then you are trading on a different planet than I am. " Yes, you are now truly annoying.
        "Didn't you figure that out?" The difference is percentage rate of change.
        Would it help if you soaked your head for a few hours? It might calm you down a little. Try it and then let us know.
        "That’s a big, fast drop. You're hair-splitting if you think that disproves my mania theory." Do I need to tell you what you can do with your theory? I've never claimed to report a "conspiracy theory." I pointed out that some participants who might have known more than I did may have made some cogent allegations about the conduct of the recapitalization.
        "and how do you feel about flying saucers?" Do I need to tell you what I think about you, or is it obvious?
        "Have a nice day."