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National Bank of Greece S.A. Message Board

  • derp0370 derp0370 Oct 20, 2013 9:51 AM Flag

    The Exercise of the Warrants IS NOT Dilution at this Point -- Correct Me If I'm Wrong, Please!!!

    OK...there appears to be an ongoing debate\concern about the exercise of these warrants, and I don't see how it is a "major" factor. This IS NOT an issuance for NEW shares hitting the open market from NBG!

    The warrants are for shares that were purchased BY the HFSF when NBG diluted the share pool earlier this year. It went like this, no?

    27 June 2013 -- 2,274,125,874 new common, registered, voting shares (“New Shares”) were issued

    As of the same date, the new aggregate of NBG shares listed on the ATHEX will be 2,396,785,994 common, registered voting shares of a nominal value of EUR 0.30 each

    As of the same date the trading of 245,779,626 Warrants will commence; the said Warrants WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HFSF -- NOTE: Warrants issued by the HFSF, NOT NBG

    The warrants represent the portion of the 2,274,125,874 new common issued on 6/27/2013 purchased by the HFSF. When you look at the number of outstanding shares for NBG, the shares the warrants represent ARE ACCOUNTED for. When you look at the EPS it is taking the warrant shares into account

    If the warrants were for rights to purchase NEW shares from NBG at the strike price, it would be a completely different ball game. That isn't the case.

    Yes, the exercised shares will "hit the market" and there will be some selling, but this IS NOT the same thing as NEW diluting shares hitting the market. That ALREADY happened. Is it possible there will be a pull back when the warrants can be exercised? Yes. Will it be HUGE? Maybe, but it is exponentially less likely than if these were NBG warrants for new shares that are not accounted for already in the common, registered new shares

    What you see is what you get when you look at the number of outstanding shares and EPS. The warrants WILL NOT dilute earnings on a per share basis when exercised. The pool of trading shares will increase, but it won't actually increase the number of shares on the market. If NBG is recovering, shouldn't be a MAJOR setback, no?

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    • here is where major accounting frauds go on without the public noticing. the profit shown by nbg was claim not on 2.445billion shares but only on less than 300 million shares because legally the new shares held by hfsf were legally locked up in the vault. so accounting worked out and earnings looked good. now that the vault is going to open and they will have to account for all 2.445 billion shares how are they going to manipulate the earnings with almost 10 times more shares. that is the 2.445 billion dollar question. swallow that one for a little bit and than argue with me, about if this bank is heading north or south. hahahahahahaha, i know you don't like it. hahahahaha

    • And the warrant schedule with exercise prices:

      Offer Price of New Shares EUR 4.29
      Months Interest Exercise Price (Euros)
      1 26/12/2013 6 3.0% 4.3758
      2 26/06/2014 12 3.0% 4.4616
      3 26/12/2014 18 3.0% 4.5689
      4 26/06/2015 24 3.0% 4.6761
      5 26/12/2015 30 3.0% 4.8048
      6 26/06/2016 36 3.0% 4.9335
      7 26/12/2016 42 3.0% 5.0837
      8 26/06/2017 48 3.0% 5.2338
      9 ** 26/12/2017** 54 3.0% 5.4054