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National Bank of Greece S.A. Message Board

  • maac1256 maac1256 Oct 24, 2013 5:36 PM Flag

    Suspicious Seeking Alpha article


    The article says this is a bad stock to own. I wondered why when all these billons are being pumped into it by billionaires and investors. I investigated and found thousands of puts were sold on NBG. Most were to short the stock. That info really made me even more suspicious of the article and it made me mad since I had just bought NBG yesterday. I swear I have only been day trading 1 month and I have a lot to learn, but what I have learned is the stock market is as crooked as a dogs hind leg. One day they say buy and the next they say sell. What to do? One day a drug is is a winner, the next an analyst is dogging it. I hope I can keep my sanity! LOL!

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    • I did not like the analysis of the article; it focused on: 1) the past, 2) the amount of Turkish activities that contribute to NBG's income, and 3) book value. An asset should be valued (granted I am a fundamentalist here) on the present value of expected future net earnings. (Some argue that the PV of asset holdings should be included, but I believe that this is double counting because the asset holdings generate net earnings.) Nowhere was there an estimate of future earnings. The article implied that NBG's Greek competitors were better plays on Greek recovery, while NBG is by far the biggest bank in Greece. The article did make a good point in that if you are truly bullish on NBG's recovery, then the warrants may be a better play. Suppose that NBG reaches $20 in 2016; if you had spent $10,000 on warrants at $.4 per warrant you would have 25,000 warrants allowing you to buy NBG at $10; the warrants would be worth $250,000. Alternatively if you had spent $10,000 buying 2000 shares ( I am rounding here) they would be worth $40,000. Of course if NBG ONLY rose 100% (to ten dollars) the warrants would be worthless, and the stock would be worth $20,000. The take away from this is the Alpha article is not very insightful, and the people who are touting buying the stock because it is a sure thing to break $30 are either (or both) not very smart, or disingenuous pumpers.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • One of the best stocks I own is up 67% since buying it and hasn't had any analyst ratings since Sept 2009, per Yahoo. Sometimes it's nice to own stocks that aren't covered by Wall Street and are "flying under the radar." Of course you find these by looking at trends in the economy, past performance, etc. (My sentiment is fluctuating between buy and hold - LOL!)

      Sentiment: Buy

    • You do completely diff what they tell u to do. Seeking alpha's bs want u to panic and get shares for 5 bucks. not going to happen. be a contrarian.

    • Tell me about the Spanish banks. Who are they? I need to know. I was just trying to find mexican banks since all the car manufactures are building there as we speak. I read that Mexico is the next China.

    • I've learned a number of things over the years. Never believe the hype of other web sites. That goes for Seeking Alpha!

    • You should always play for long term not day trading. Since there are many crooks in the market, you need to learn how to value companies looking at its balance sheet, etc.

      NBG should do great in long term.

      • 3 Replies to bkim94132
      • Yep, I had my first biggish loss not too long ago. I went in with a bit of money on a beaten down tech stock, buying it on a 13% drop, I'm thinking bargain, I'm smarter than others, this will bounce back soon. Kept falling free fall for the next couple of days. Caught me on the third day, I did my switch from nights to days, underslept, moody, out of coffee so caffeine withdrawing, I'm sitting watching this thing fall like crazy, I'm convincing myself it's nothing, but I find myself reaching for positive affirmations to console me in my emotional panic feelings. I start reading worse and worse things. I realized I had broken one of my cardinal rules of investing - stay away from TECH stocks. Then I had had enough, I realized I didn't know enough about the company and the whole thing was too volatile, so I bailed at a 15% loss.. which while not massive, was still sizeable enough to hurt.. the pride perhaps more than the bottom line, as predictably, a couple days later it began its rebound. I'd been had. A relatively inexpensive education which will be invaluable to keep me more disciplined in the future.

      • Well said ^

        Thats exactly how we should approach investing. Ignore all this negative noise one these boards.

    • Read up on the efficient markets hypothesis and just remember, the market knows best and though it might be moved by manipulation, media, and emotions, it always regains it equilibrium to reflect TRUE VALUE.

    • You are just starting to grasp to the corruption involved in the market. Be very careful, and never buy all at once. Better yet, just watch a stock that catches your attention for a week or more just to see the trading characteristics. And dig deep for info. You can never know enough. You might lose some opportunities here and there, but better than buying too high, and grinding your teeth as it goes lower from a bear raid, and goes nowhere from there. Been there and done that way too many times. Good luck.