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National Bank of Greece SA Message Board

  • buchanan_1 buchanan_1 Nov 15, 2013 2:26 PM Flag

    Berenberg’s €2.3 tangible book value for NBG is incorrect: It’s €1.6

    Berenberg’s €2.3 tangible book value (TBV) for NBG (ETE.AT) is incorrect: It’s €1.6. And Berenberg’s 1.79 Price/TBV (€4.08/€2.3 for 10/18) is also incorrect: It’s 2.5, which is very high for a troubled bank. All currencies in Euros except where noted.
    It’s incorrect b/c it does not subtract preferred share value from nominal book value (NBV). (TBV is what shareholders of common stock will get if company goes bankrupt after the preferred shareholders are paid off, so it must not be included in TBV.) Berenberg got their data from Bloomberg, who I already showed made 2 prior big errors regarding NBG (Oct 22, 2013 post, “Rebuttal to brendabreeze: Fair Value is closer to $3.5 not $7.05.”)

    B&B (Berenberg, Bloomberg) used correct semi-tangible book value (STBV) of ~5,500M. They subtracted intangible goodwill but not preferred share value (2013 Q2, p17).
    110,434M Assets – 102,835M Liabilites – 68M NCI – 2,026M Intangibles = 5,505M STBV
    M = millions; NCI = non-controlling interest

    Subtracting preferred share value (Q2, p34) from STBV gives correct TBV, which I already posted on Nov 5, “Update of Tangible Book Value for NBG.”
    Berenberg: (5,500M STBV)(. . . no . .PSV) / (2,400M shares) = €2.29 TBV/share
    Buchanan: (5,505M STBV)(-1,593M PSV) / (2,400M shares) = €1.63 TBV/share
    PSV = preferred share value.

    Oct 18 Price to TBV
    Berenberg: (Price €4.08/share)/(€2.29 TBV/share) = 1.8 Price/TBV
    Buchanan: (Price €4.08/share)/(€1.63 TBV/share) = 2.5 Price/TBV

    Price/TBV of 2.5 is far higher than usual for troubled banks. But a stock can trade above TBV if its earning justify a higher Fair Value. In my Nov 5 post, “Current and Future Fair Value for NBG,” they were listed as €1.8 and €3.1, respectively, so the current Nov 14 price of €4.3 shows it is significantly higher than both.
    In other words, the recovery is already baked into the price.
    BTW, Stephen Percoco of Seeking Alpha got the same TBV as I did, and he’s good.

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    • For equations w/ better clarity go to my post:
      New Eq’s: Berenberg’s €2.3 Tangible BV for NBG is incorrect: It’s €1.6,
      Nov 17, 2013 11:08 PM

    • Hey everyone, buchanan knows the tangible book value of NBG better than Berenberg:

      "Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. KG, commonly known as Berenberg Bank and branded as Berenberg, is a German multinational financial institution, primarily a merchant bank and a private bank, set up under the legal form of a limited partnership "

      wow buchanan, you must be smart, if you out-mathed the phds working for Berenberg... lol.. keep dreaming buddy

      • 2 Replies to krimhumhrim108
      • He is on fire because NBG pulled back 15 pennies... Wounder how he will feel when NBG moves up 75 pennies. hmmmm

        Sentiment: Hold

      • The three people that wrote the Berenberg tangible book value (TBV) report were not PhD’s and not Germans, as you claimed. Apparently, you can’t read. They were two Greeks (ho, ho) and an Englishman: (Eleni Papoula, analyst; Nick Anderson, analyst; Iro Papadopoulou, specialist sales). Since the 2000 tech meltdown, the analyst profession has lost a lot of credibility.

        I think you should leave the math to me and just shut up b/c here is your quote from Nov 5.
        Ansirkerah (krim) • Nov 5, 2013 6:12 PM
        “I can't judge your math as I'm lazy and don't care about the numbers . . .”
        And the bulls on this board are following you?

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