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Textron Inc. Message Board

  • kruggerand kruggerand Feb 10, 2012 5:48 PM Flag

    Don't celebrate until the game is over!

    A piece of advice for us all, that I used to give to my players and now to I said in a prior message ...relax catch our breath..don't do anything stupid. If you are in doubt lock up what you have (sell) and then if we are all correct and know it buy back you position but you have locked in protection against any disaster of bad news. I haven't taken my own advice again but think it is good to prevent further repeat suffering and the cost is little (unless you think the announcement is near.

    Sorry to sober everyone up, look for the and Lupune assessment of what I have said...

    Best to all(buy a power ball ticket just in case)


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    • Csi, wait for one more shoe to drop, like Greek default or italian bailout talk, before buying any banks. I expect C to test the last year lows of $21.40 and BAC to flirt with 5 before a total rebound. It can happen within a week of any triggered event like Greek default or a serious talk of it. BAC will likely see a near-term resistance at 7.67 and the support below is at $6.83-6.90 range and $5.00. Watch out below before you buy.

      Stick with the sure thing like TXT, now even better with Warren Buffett's big business deal. Business backlog is good and all TXT companies have to do is bend the metal, process it, shoot a few rivets, and deliver. Low risk, higher demand environment than last few years.

    • You looking at my "stuff"? I also in addtition to TXT,NOK, have interests in F, MO, PM, KFT, which have been very good for me over the years. When I look at the cost basis and the dividends we have received ....must be getting 15++% yield plus the gains. F with its spin off's owe me nothing (bought in 88). Took a bath in Worldcom/MCI with many others including family who worked there for 20 years ...they lost all options benefits etc.

      Currently have interests in convertibles and pfd's trying to get some regular safe income (now all I have to do is figure out interest rates).

      Best keep up the good posts


    • No, an hour before the earnings, thought about buying some call options for 645 but did not have the courage. Could have made ten-fold but I refrain from options.

    • Krug: I agree with your observations on NOK/MSFT but see accumulation in NOK by major institutions.

      Yes, it does come down to courage. We let so many opportunities pass us by because we don't back up our thoughts with action. As a result, sometime we win and sometime we just miss out. When LuPune bought it, TXT was severly underpriced as the pieces were worth lot more than TXT was priced at ($1.5B total). If I had $1.5B, I would have bought a majority interest in the company. But I did the next best thing- buy TXT stock. Looking back over 10 years, I recognized but missed many opportunities-
      1) Ford- amid facilities closing, cost resturcturing, product refreshes, it was increadible value at ~$2. Had the money and told everyone to buy it but missed it myself.
      2) Phillip Morris (including Kraft)- during class-action lawsuits, seemed dirt cheap arounf $18 as was RJR. Knew it but did not take action. Later when Kraft was spun-off making me realize the missed opportunity.
      3) McDonald- Remember Mad Cow disease when MCD was selling at $13. I never believed it will suffer long-term and missed 600% return.
      4) Starbucks- opened too many stores and had too many persihable food items and was selling at $8/share. Knew it was cheap and missed 500%.
      5) Chipotle- saw attractiveness of product offering and recognized major opportunity, only to stare it go up at least 700%.
      6) PCLN- just did not believe in their potential and have been dead wrong all this time.
      7) Google- had a chance to buy it at the IPO day when it came down from 100 to 80 and considered it overpriced and have I been wrong?
      8) Didn't buy gold coins when it was selling for $260 an ounce several years ago but today, if I had the courage, I will buy put options on GLD and never have to work again. But I admit I do not have the courage for this one.

      Then again, I jumped in too soon in some and lost my shirt in likes of Worldcom, options on almost anything, and margin at times. Now, I never do margin and options, no matter what the potential but have taken positions in what seems like clear opportunities for five-fold increase. I like BAC (Possible +700% in five years from here), C (+500%), NOK (+1000%), ALU (500%), TXT (+300%), AA (+300%) at the moment. Of these, TXT seems safest bet. BAC and C are more or less safer, and NOK is very intriguing with potential elimination of PC, Smartphone, Digital Camera, and Videoconferencing equipment with one SmartTablet with detachable smartphone within a year. At $5.29, downside risk to NOK is max 6% while upside can be 1000% in 5 years. At 27.75, TXT downside risk is about 11% (24.76) but reward is a safe 300% in 2 years.

      If I had lots of money, I will buy stakes in Pinterest and Freebirds.

      So I think today. I may be completely wrong but have the courage to bet a bit on each of these names. But TXT is still a no-brainer with easy double by early next year after this sideways move is done hopefully within a month.

    • Krug ... I totally agree, although I have lacked this dicipline for decades ... I had large positions in Pan Am, Berkey Photo and Edison Schools (all BK)... I had gains in all but greed had me assuming larger gains and not buying back after taking cash off the table ... and I failed to sell txt when it was falling through $60 in 2008.

      I do intend to take some off soon ... I added alot in March 2009 as did Queenie and I should realize those gains (BTW, great tech analysis!) and I need to fund my son's honeymoon and rehearsal dinner ... best of luck!!

    • Queen you got left out of my post and we need your assessment again of what I posted and what you know and feel.


      • 1 Reply to kruggerand
      • Krug, thanks for the honor to ask my convictions. Before you asked, I have been wondering where Textron price is going. Based on trend analysis and technical analysis, here are my observations:

        1) When it moves up, this stock ascends fast. See the recent five year candlestick chart that shows price movement
        a) from 3.75 in late Feb to 13.56 on Apr 9, 2009 (up 360% in ~45 days).
        b) from 8.95 on July 6 to 19.44 on Sept 14, 2009 (up 214% in 45 days).
        c) from 18.91 on Sept 1, 2010 to 28.50 on Feb 14, 2011 (up 151%; this move was lot slower but quite uninterrupted).

        2) Based on candlestick chart dating from ~1994 timeframe to today, the following scenario is likely for Textron stock price-
        a) price likely goes to ~28.95 with a gentle pull back to ~26.75; whether we go straight through 28.95 resistance depends on what happens in Greece and to overall market sentiment. The current price ascent from 19 to potentially 28.95 resistance level for a 52% increase pales in comparison to the historic price movement trends listed in observation 1) above. Therefore, a move straight to 38.90 by March 15 for an uptick of 205% is not inconceivable in current run-up due to great news of recent earnings growth and potential spinoff and perhaps dividend increase. Today's price action and volume confirms that Textron will not follow the market down because of the perceived value and future growth it offers.
        b) If however,we see technical resistance at 28.95 followed by a pull back to 26.75 then, the next move takes TXT price to ~38.90 followed by a gentle pull back to ~35
        c) next the share price approaches ~45 where we have technical resistance and pulls back to ~41.40
        d) Thereafter, there is not much of a technical resistance until we get to ~62 and ~72 and no resistance after that (for now).

        LuPune has already told me that he believes more in fundamental valuation than techncial analysis and I largely agree. After all, that is why I bought TXT in $4-$7 range and will wait till it hits $75 before I consider selling it. However, along the way, many big investment houses may constrain the price action to resistance levels dictated by technical analysis. Ofcourse, the geopolitical events as well as any company news such as dividend increase will shape price action too.

        My gut tells me that we are going straight to $38.95 by March 15th with a slight hesitation at 26.75-28.50 range. Spikes, just a guess, don't hold me to this date.

        Go Textron.
        Disclaimer: This is my best guess, guys and gals. Please do not make buying or selling decisions based on this analysis and blaim me later. This non-statistical trend extrapolation and anlysis is offered with genuine humility because I am a novice.

41.10+0.88(+2.19%)Oct 8 4:06 PMEDT