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Textron Inc. Message Board

  • olegka_best olegka_best Jul 2, 2013 3:51 PM Flag

    Nice to be SHORT

    TXT hit the MA50 resistance as expected and turned down. The "death cross" (the crossover MA50 below MA200) registered on June 24, 2013 clearly indicated that the substantial downtrend was about o begin.
    I am SHORT, by the way

    Sentiment: Sell

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    • At what price did you short? ... I would consider covering as txt may be doing its usual sandbagging with next week's earnings plus the Motley Fool article is a strong reminder of the huge value that would be unlocked if mgmt. finally wakes up and spins-off one or more jewels ... clearly txt is a leashed dog in its present form ... my DCF models assume separate valuations for Bell, Cessna and Systems ... this co may be a boring wet blanket with dismal IR but it IS a $40++ bore ... trade at your peril ... no predicting when the princess will emerge ...

    • Im looking at my charts and I certainly dont see the same thing your seeing. Arguably you can make the charts read the way you want them too. That said, the only reason to short at this level is because you think the upcoming Q report is going to be bad, thats the only reasoning I see atm.

      Im staying for the upside for the next week or 2, maybe longer. Just depends on the market as a whole.

    • So you value stocks with technical analysis - charts of what investors are doing - and you conclude txt is wildly overvalued at $25, or 11X ... if you were doing a LBO on txt, how would you value it? with charts of price trends? with the results of algorithms programmed by someone who doesn't know the difference between net present value and a fishing net? ... I would like to know how you valued txt ... any consideration for DCF, sustainable competitive advantages, etc.?

      • 3 Replies to ggekko1243
      • I do not value anything ! The MARKET does!. I am trying to forecast the price movement based upon the chart. In this case, TXT is below MA200, and "MA20 less than MA50 less than MA200" ,which is the very bearish alignment. The Elliot wave count also points towards the downtrend.

        Sentiment: Sell

      • I do not value anything ! The MARKET does!. I am trying to forecast the price movement based upon the chart. In this case, TXT is below MA200, and MA20

        Sentiment: Sell

      • I apologize for any sarcasm but IMO the ONLY value in charting is to optimize the timing of trades ... the only way to actually ascribe an intrinsic value for a stock (or ANY asset) is to model the present value of future cash flows at appropriate discount rates ... the value of any stock is the value of that business divided by the number of shares ... in txt's case you need to look at the expected cash flows of each major strategic business unit, Bell, Systems, Cessna (lump TFC and the remaining junk units and net with the useless corp expenses) ... estimate with EBITDA ... then use a range of interest rates to arrive at NPVs ... with a bit of analysis, you (along with most bankers) will get an aggregate value north of $40 ... when will this be realized? ... sooner rather than later given catalysts like spin-offs and/or acquisitions/mergers ...

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