...looks to me like she tried to answer, but simply misunderstood, poorly worded questions from the poster who cried wolf (contradiction) too many times. ...noone else ventures to answer even your valid questions because they don't care to see their every sentence dismembered and ridiculed in your foolish parrotgames. ...and maybe, noone wants to do your homework for you since you've just declared that you'll do no work on your own.
that said, i'm not concerned (or hopeful) about your responses (i deal w/a 3-yr. old daily)...so here's MY tardy answer to your questionable question:
...not all films are created equal, nor are their marketing promos equal, nor are the socio-economic conditions in which they are released equal - so drop the "metric" word, it ain't calculus and nothing's a given on future BO. however, from discussions/links on this board (years past), i do have 20-30% of DBO in my own mind, as quite possible with re-release of MI after we win the Oscar in March '02.
Thank you for your opinion. And for your answer. But I disagree that there can be no metric. If it were possible to collect the statistics, all you would need to do is divide the 'total B.O'. by the 'B.O before the award' for each film that won an award and then take the average. I don't lack the skill, I lack the statistics. Further, I wonder if there isn't an even better metric already out there. Just because you don't know of one doesn't mean that the issue is closed.
I feel like a moron for doing this, but I am going to reword my previous reply. That one was written in the midst of sleeplessness.
Thank you for your opinion. And for your answer. But I disagree with you (I know, that's heresy in your religion) that there can be no metric. After all, you provided a metric yourself of 20% to 30%. This is the best offer I've had so far. Unfortunately, it derives "from discussions/links on this board" and as Hogsgotoslaughter has correctly pointed out, lacks a certain power of persuasion.
If it were possible to collect the statistics, all you would need to do is divide the 'B.O after the award'. by the 'total B.O.' for each film that won an award and then take the average. I don't lack the skill, I lack the statistics. Further, I wonder if there isn't an even better metric already out there. Just because you don't know of one doesn't mean that the issue is closed.
but you still twist the intent of my response with your last sentence's invalid claim - noone even insinuated that the issue was "closed". in fact, i'd really like to see other opinions on this issue of estimating the added DBO value of an Oscar win...from the many that are more plugged into hollywood than either of us.
most "estimating" is an art, not a science. as such, i repeat the point that a simplistic mathematical average, arrived at from statistics based on other movies/promos/economies would not render a conclusive metric for MI's future performance. would that elusive "metric" have accurately predicted the performance of Lion King ?