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Pixar Animation Studios (PIXR) Message Board

  • Calamity00 Calamity00 Aug 3, 2001 9:26 AM Flag

    some thoughts on Pixar.....

    1st about the preview...with both "I am a cartoon" and "I used to work for Pixar" saying there is no new preview I'm sticking with my guns and saying at the very least the promo airing with PD is longer(which means there is new stuff) than the one which came with Atlantis..I thank the 2 guys who tried to get me to watch the preview on line BUT I kept having problems downloading it....if you go to the movies make sure you see it..I don't believe it will have ANY effect on the stock price...Pixar to me is still a BUY below 40 and a sell around 45...we'll see if it gets to 50...and no matter how well Monsters does at the box office history tells us to SHORT Pixar after the movie debuts...good luck to all....

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    • You are right as to the stock price. It tends to sell off right before movie release. However another way to trade it is to buy it the Friday of the opening week and sell it on the Monday open.

      It usually sells off the week prior to release and presents a great entry point on Friday. It will have a super strong opening weekend and open strong on Monday at open.

      Then the shorts hop on and drive it down.
      Each movie and each year presents those you hold closer to a greater payoff longer term.

      3 - 4 years from now when Pixar will be at the end of the Disney contract, It should be a lot higher.

      Fear not if you are long for the long term and be nervous if you are short for the short term.

      Buzz

      • 1 Reply to Buzz_Lightyear_1998
      • Okay, I'm ready to play the opening week game.

        First, this entire year Pixar has waited until the second month after the end of the quarter to release earnings. If they release earnings in October instead of November then this will be a sign "the big boys want to dump shares before the movie releases". If that happens then dump all of your short-term shares on the morning of the earnings release and buy back on the Friday after.

        Second, anyone who is buying now should be able to see a 25% percent gain between now and the movie release. Once the Disney Marketing Blitz begins $50 should be a lock and higher should be possible. Those who have been burned in the past should sell at $50. Don't get too greedy and you should come out ahead.

        Third, Buzz78 is right, the shorts will sell millions of shares the week after the movie release. You too should consider dumping all of your short-term shares (anything you aren't planning to go really long with). The only thing that could stop the inevitable drop is an October announcement that the shares are going to split in December. (That will never happen.. regardless, Pixar is already priced at half of Apple, Intel, Sun, JDSU, Lucent, and other affordable stocks.)

        Fourth, if you sell off you short-term shares then be smart and wait a few months to buy back. The hype should wear off by the end of the year.

 

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