Maybe Repligen needs to show that it can produce net income without any royalty income. Until then I expect that the price will fall to a narrow range in the low sevens until the next piece of goods news. Someday Repligen will be worth $10.00 per share or more but I do not see how a person could justify such a high price based on the current facts and the current forecasts.
I could be dead wrong but I don't think this recent pullback is significant.
Number one, RGEN has been manipulated by shorts. Even with massive shorting RGEN continues to go north. Obviously there are a lot of people or institutions that think RGEN is attractively priced.
Why is there massive shorting. Probably because some nitwit is looking at the termination of Orencia royalties at the end of 2013. These nitwits do not realize that the Orencia income is not free money. RGEN has to pay significant royalties to the University of Michigan for that income. RGEN's loss of income from the Orencia royalties is not as much as it might look.
Second, RGEN is scheduled to receive a 21 million dollar payment from Pfizer in 2014 which more than negates the loss of the Orencia royalties for 2014.
Thirdly, RGEN is reducing its research expenditures. This directly affects the bottom line
And just for good measure, RGEN's income and profits are increasing. Why? Because RGEN is first in class in the dynamic bioprocessing niche. Furthermore. Royalties or payments from other products such as Freidrich's ataxia, pancreatic imaging, and aquisitions will further enhance the bottom line this year and in the future.
I thought it already has, hasn't it? the bioprocessing business has increased significantly and will keep increasing as more biologics come into play. I think it is being played a bit now but the value has not depreciated at all. It is worth 10 easily when compared to other purely speculative stocks.
If your a short term trader this probably has some downside BUT anything over 1-2 years AGREE TOTTALLY
WITH YOUR POST - this is a real stellar and safe investment just on the basis of core bioprocessing - with plenty of room to move up.
The 3 month DMI flipped to negative. The bottom support right now is just below $7. If it continues negative, it would reach the bottom support somewhere in the low sevens. It could take about a month to get there. (assuming it doesn't break and go straight down.)
From there I would say that the bottom support would hold and it would start to slowing rise again off that low 7 price.
For long term, it's not a big deal, just a little 2-3 month hiccup.