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Generex Biotechnology Corp. Message Board

  • bg_rox2001 bg_rox2001 Feb 3, 2011 11:31 AM Flag

    300M shares give or take

    Reality:

    There are way too many O/S for this thing to ever run past $3 bucks or so. For it to get to that level they need to conclude a Phase III study with favorable results which is A LONG way off.

    Stop looking at the share price and start lookin at the Market Cap. Too many people say "this stock is only 23 cents!" and obviously fail to realize that is because they have diluted their O/S for years. I think this company has a decent shot at recovering but for people expecting it to EVER get back to $17/share, think again. When it was at that level they only had about 25M shares out. A blockbuster drug is about 1B/yr sales give or take, assuming about 15% margin, you have about 150M profit. That is about .50 EPS, even if no further dilution. With a P/E of 10 that is $5/share. This is assuming they even get to market which about 95% of these companies never do. Besides, for them to ever get to market with one of these drugs, they will have probably 500-600M shares O/S by then.

    If they reach Phase III, expect further dilution. Why, because they will need the cash for the studies. 300M shares will become 400M shares, and so on.

    Best case with favorable Phase II results and entrance into Phase III is about $1.50 max.

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