I didn't have an opportunity to listen to the webcast live, but I listened to the replay.
While I am not happy with the comments, nothing in the webcast really surprised me, nor should it have surprised anyone who understands start-up companies. Do I wish that I was investing in the company now for the first time, absolutely.
So here are some of the things that I gleaned from the presentation and Q&A.
1. The decision to eliminate the OTC products excluding what was required by the Merck agreement was a great move. As I have mentioned in previous posts, the cost associated with trying to compete in the the OTC market is very difficult for a small company like Generex. This allows the company to focus on its product development.
2. I am disappointed to hear that more studies for Oral-Lyn would be necessary, but not surprised. Dr. Anderson, with his background, has a full understanding of what is required from the FDA. I believe that GNBT, from this point forward will have a solid clinical/regulatory plan. Again, am I disappointed, yes, but am I surprised no. Understanding the physiology of insulin absorption through the buccal mucosa is going to be a question from the FDA, so then it has to be answered. If Mr. Markus had actually talked to the FDA prior to starting the Phase III, he would have known about these questions.
3. I wish the meeting with Shreya was earlier so that we would have had some news regarding Oral-Lyn in India. I suspect that they have probably completed their enrollment, but do not have the results from the study. Maybe if we are lucky, they will have a preliminary report.
Everything else, except one item that I will get to, went as I expected. I believe that there is a true attempt to be transparent by this management team. If it wasn't trying to be transparent, they would have painted a much brighter picture than they did. I took this as saying all the previous mismanagement of resources is lost, but we are now going to try to get on track and keep it on track.
At this point, I am still going to vote for the R/S. I guess for my current shares, I am hoping that the R/S will be less dilutive than continuing to sell shares with 100% warrant coverage on the OTC market. It's not ideal, but I think it's the only way to go and retain some value in my current shares.
MY BIGGEST CONCERN THOUGH IS THE SPINOUT OF ANTIGEN EXPRESS.
I do not know how many of you picked up the fact that there will be no dividend issued to Generex shareholders if the R/S is not passed. Therefore, the only way a Generex shareholder can get value from Antigen Express is through their holding in Generex and not a direct holding in Antigen Express! I was planning on the dividend shares to give me the short-term payback that Generex is not going to be able to deliver (because I have a lot more faith in AE37 generating positive pps, than Oral-Lyn at this point). I would like to think that many of you were also counting on the dividend shares.
So for those of you who have lost a lot of money in GNBT, I think AE is probably your only way to make your money back or even make a profit, should Generex happen to have some success in the short-term on their pps. Again, it's not great, but it's something. I invested the money knowing I could lose it, so I am willing to sit on it
(btw, I have another stock that I invested in 10 years ago, that went into the dump for 7-years, but now I am up almost 400% on that investment --- Maybe the same will happen with Generex ... ROFLMFAO).
Great post. I was a little emotional yesterday after hearing additional studies would be needed for Oral-Lyn, but I must say that your post makes sense. That said, it is still very upsetting that the comapny didn't get it right in the first place, not to mention that this most likely puts them behind Mankind on being first to market.
I too will begrudgingly vote my 25,000 shares for the R/S for the same reasons you state. I believe it is a path to regaing losses and I like the pure Antigen Express play.
As with yourself, I didn't put anything on the table that I can't afford to lose, so I will ride it out. I'll either make money or lose it all and I am OK with either outcome.
Good luck to you and keep posting. I really appreciate your opinions. I always know that you have thought things through and take the time to clearly state your views.
They cannot just take value from gnbt and spin it out. It will be reflected in one form or another......ie shares of the newco on the balance sheet of gnbt.The whole offering of the dividend carrot is a farce. Anything you get will be diluted with the need for financings.....eventually you will have zippo in equity unless you inject more cash into this......smoke and mirrors....vote no and retain at least the power you have in voting where you have a chance to make a difference. Unless they sell this co. or someone steps in the writings on the wall for future dilutions.
Of course the writing is on the wall for future dilutions...It's an R&D biotech, they always need funding. Also, you obviously do not have a grasp on the value of the 2 companies combined as compared to separated. Ever think that maybe a BP won't invest in AE because it is under GNBT and OL, not on its own? Maybe they are afraid that their investment will be siphoned off to OL.
Your investing 'strategy' is quite askew. Who says you have to make back losses with the SAME stock that sunk you? Learn to look around...and glance at charts once in a while. GNBT just told you, in effect, that they are YEARS off, so there is no catalyst to propel this upward, is there?????? And so is AE - even more so...and as yet, unproven. TOGETHER, they are at 21c pps, why do you think their value increases any if apart?
I was basing the loss comment on people who have said on this MB that they have been here since it was $5/share. At this point, they should either sell their shares and take the loss or vote yes for the R/S and ride it out.
I purchased this stock knowing full well that I could lose my investment in the company. I am slightly under on it by ~$0.01, so I am not worried. I have made plenty of money on stocks that I hold long, particularly when I believe in the product(s). I never believed in the past management of GNBT, but I do have belief in the current management and its products.
As for AE, if there wasn't value in AE, then I don't believe Dr. Eagle would have wasted the last couple of years working with the company. Failure of GNBT would be a boon for Pfizer to acquire the assets of AE extremely cheap. As a separate entity, AE is likely to draw more interest, particularly if they put together an extremely strong management team to run the company. It's the history of GNBT that is holding back the value of AE, in my humble opinion.
near term catalyst is
if FDA agrees to submit NDA with 500 Patient trial?
FDA very much can do do that...and later issue CRL that results are not conclusive and ask for new trial with more patient population...
so if FDA allows NDA...then this stock can trade above buck an share....