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The Hain Celestial Group, Inc. Message Board

  • super.linux super.linux Aug 24, 2012 3:20 PM Flag

    if they miss next Q stock will gap down below 50

    longs have to realize that massive short position is being accumulated at these levels on top of 11% short prior to Q
    and in addition to cramer pump

    its a very risky play now

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    • In a very shaky market environment, the risk factors inherent to HAIN far exceed any potential rewards. Maybe 5% upside from here. Downside is 50%, or more, if S&P drops 20% in the next few months.
      "Buy high and sell higher" is, arguably, the stupidest "investing" thesis I've ever heard of. "Buy and hold" is a strong contender.

      • 2 Replies to kmsmith08
      • You could be right, but I'd be surprised given the strong results, strong guidance, nice acquisition and diverstures. You were not "right" when you bought puts prior to the recent earnings announcement. HAIN has a lot going for it right now, including AMZN now being its number 4 customer and more and more HAIN products are in TGT, COST & WMT.
        Different opinions make a market! You may be able to scalp a few bucks with your puts (your recent buy that is; IMO doubtful re your pre earnings put buy).
        Time will tell.

      • bobkochnowicz Aug 25, 2012 3:08 PM Flag

        Well it sounds like you got burned pretty bad.Your comment contains a pretty big if.Take a look at the last 9 quarters.Do you see a trend there?The fact that people under forty are driving the growth and HAIN now has a growing presence at WalMart.I wouldnt suggest buying at this number but to suggest the stock drops under 50 is absurd.

    • I don't disagree with staying out, but I would not short it here. If you ask me the shorts piling on here are going to be forced out at a loss. It was still up today on high volume and though it came off of the day's high it still based just below $70. BNNY has a P/E over 80. You just never know. So I guess what I'm saying is I wouldn't buy here. I might sell here or just sell calls, but I would definitely not short here.

    • Down .81 AH.

      I am watching it now and get in only around $60.

    • Yup, I imagine while some shorts are covering and supporting the gains, new shorts are probably establishing new positions.

      Yup, just like any growth company, if they miss a Q, the market will not be kind to the valuation....but, if HAIN continues to hit/exceed, well, that's a different story.

      I'm not a trader. Longer term, IMO, HAIN has a lot of room to grow as does its share price. Short term, sure, the shares may decline a bit (or more).

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