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Western Asset Mortgage Capital Corporation Message Board

  • linelong77 linelong77 Jan 23, 2013 1:20 PM Flag



    I see no catalyst to send us higher with the ex-dividend date being months away. I expect imho that we go lower. BTW Hello to Mr Jack Hiller.

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • I bought back in to WMC today on the intraday dip. I hope it the dip wasn't due to a leaked upcoming SPO after hours, but if so I will probably double down.

      • 1 Reply to taymere_lane
      • jackhiller Jan 25, 2013 3:55 PM Flag

        MTGE was down even more than WMC, so don nopt attribute the dip to just WMC . If there were any rationale for these dips, I expect two sources as probable.

        First, yahoo shows that there is a pop today of over 5% in the ten year treasury note, so that implies a further flattening of the yield curve, and a lower profit spread for mortgage portfolios to be bought as existing portfolios mature. However, the futures are actually down a little, so this appears to be a tradoing aberration and not any trend.

        Second, some folks have the "foolish" practice of placing stop loss orders a bit below the trading price; market makers can then sell down on small volume when trading is thin, as it was this morning, to trigger these sales and acquire cheap shares. I'm inclined to think this is what happened.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • jackhiller Jan 23, 2013 5:30 PM Flag

      Hi, linelong, We can expect the next earnings report (1st or 2nd week in Feb) about a month before the next divi is declared in March. You may recall that the last earnings report provided a "surprise" increase while the other hybred MREITs had flat to lower earnings,and unlike all others they boosted the regular divi as well as adding the 22 cent extra, and then too there was substantial insider buying. Mortgage interest rates for this reporting period are little changed from the last quarter, and we might expect that WMC's sector leading low CPR ( around 4%) would have continued to advantage the earnings, so I expect another superior earnings report.

      As a newbie REIT, I expect that many retail investors are yet leary about how well this new REIT will perform. Fact is its managers are highly experienced even though the REIT is new. Another good earnings report in Feb will boost investor confidence and bid prices higher. I plan to reinvest the dividends due next week with the yield over 16%.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

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