Earnings will propel this over 22, and with the dividend behavior thus far of increases every quarter, the distribution announcement will run it to 24 by exdiv eve.
The managers are as good [so far] as Kain and Wilkus over at AGNC and MTGE.
I don't do much TA, but I do notice that since last Wednesday the intraday rallies have been in low volume and the sell offs in high volume. However support at $21 has held for three tests over the last month as you say. Without any events like the ER we appear to be range bound between $21 and $22 until the 4q12 ER.
I'm not trying to trade those $1 swings right now, I'm just holding long.
What types of indicators on your charts tell you that the uptrend is intact?