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Western Asset Mortgage Capital Corporation Message Board

  • jim.riesenberg Apr 2, 2013 2:05 PM Flag

    Another view

    The 61.8% extended fib. is at $23.62 +- .03 so that would be my guess. Also, if we end up there on ex-date and they then throw out another SPO with a 3% discount including fees to the underwriter PPS will be just north of the Dec.31, 2012 BV.
    WMC is currently in the final reach of a Elliott wave 3, so, corrective wave 4 by rule can not overlap wave 1. On the pull back I am looking for re-entry at $22.01 - $22.05.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Hey Jim,

      Looks like you were a little shy on your prediction for the high pre-EX. I got out at 23.85 and think we will hit 24.00 between today and tomorrow intra-day. I think you are close on your re-entry point although my guess is slightly lower @ 21.50 post spo. Time will is uncertain, but the past certainly helps us as a predictor, doesn't it?

      Best to you,


      • 2 Replies to reits_r_us
      • jim.riesenberg Apr 8, 2013 11:53 AM Flag

        Xanax, Please!

        The markets are not perfectly patterned. In as much as I rely on an unemotional model hoping to create that perfect geometric relationship... outside economic factors, which include human interaction, create an awful lot of high anxiety over here. I certainly want to be correct all the time but I have left a few dollars on the table this go around. In at $21.46 out at $23.42.

        Good call, Doc!

      • Hi Doc: So if I understand your strategy, you sell BEFORE the Ex-Div date at the "higher" price of $23.85 (and forgo the dividend) and then buy in again after the Ex-Div date when the PPS drops (to the SPO price; in this case "possibly" 21.50)?

        Sentiment: Hold

    • Hey ddJim –

      So happy to hear from you. I hope you recover from the jetlag soon.
      What a nice trip you must have had. I am definitely jealous!!!!!! :-)

      Also, congrats on your GILD winnings, and you don’t owe me anything – I like to see everyone make money.
      I’m still holding a significant position, waiting until they receive FDA approval for their HEP-C oral “cocktail”.
      I have also invested some “coin” in a biotech VC, Third Rock Ventures in Boston. They have an impressive website :-)

      BTW – The spyder is currently in storage in Monaco. (sigh)

      Doc - I though I saw your post – “bought KMP May85Calls @ 3.99.” – after my feedback - Correct?
      I still strongly believe you should buy a villa in Cabo, rent it out until you’re ready to retire, and then Walla!

      All The Best,

      PS – A Trip Down Memory Lane for the DD – Tears in the Rain
      “I’ve seen things you people wouldn’t believe……………………………………..” - Roy

    • Good to see you are still alive Jim...;-)

      I am hoping for 24.00, but as we all know, anything can happen.

      On another note, what do you think of GLAD/3% or have you looked? I guess that is rhetorical because I already know your answer... presumptuous? Check it out and let me know if this is your thinking:

      IMO, I am more and more convinced that any mechanical model is only as good as the traders. Those who are willing to put in the hard work to consistently stick with the model, putting on and taking off trades and not giving in(quitting) over a series of losses, and proper money management to sustain those very same inevitable draw-downs. The post it note on the computer I reference says, " the next 500 trades", for only with the compilation of a multitude of trades are equity curves established.



      • 1 Reply to reits_r_us
      • nicole.riesenberg Apr 4, 2013 10:18 AM Flag

        Hi Doc, I hope all is well with you, family and practice!

        I have enjoyed you’re contributions over the past several months as I appreciate the amount of time and thought that goes into each trading concept. Thanks for sharing!

        As you may already know, the group over at WMC are not new to the MReit business. Their most recent disclosure, and lets just call it an “inadvertent third party error” should not have happened. It caused a bit of stir within the retail space and may have limited the potential ex-date run-up this period. I like the issue but think they are creating the additional $$ from the 9+ times leverage. Thus, the increase in dividend for 1Q. But then again, I am not behind their trading desk and have no way of knowing if the additional 5 cents is a result of MBS that were sold at a profit. In any regard, I know management must have been rattled. I fully expect a secondary offering early this month.

        If you don’t mind I need to review you’re work on GAIN and get back to you! I am still very involved with AGNC, MTGE and WMC. I am currently flat and will be getting back in at the levels I have indicated below assuming those levels are hit:

        MTGE $25.32, $24.89 and $24.46
        WMC $22.60, $22.30 and $22.00
        AGNC $32.17, $31.48, $30.92 and $30.36

    • I think the third wave has been compressed by the wait [delay in the declaration] and that energy will be released into a nice move after yesterday's churn by the nellies who think it has topped. In this way waiting acts like weighting. Expectation is potential energy. Perhaps a little more churn today.

    • Hey Jim (aka Mr. TA) –

      It's good to hear from you.

      I very much doubt that more than 3% of the posters on this board ever heard of Fibonacci & Elliott, let alone understand and/or deploy their concept.

      Hope all is well in Naples!


    • Fibs are harder to predict on thinly traded stocks like WMC - guess we'll see. Regardless - I do an SPO is coming post ex-div.

14.23+0.15(+1.07%)Oct 1 4:06 PMEDT

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