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Focus Media Holding Ltd. Message Board

  • paultradestoday paultradestoday Jun 23, 2008 9:17 AM Flag


    The truth about institutional activity in FMCN;
    There have been 68 new institutional postions with buying activity around 50%. Everybody is still significatly underwater just like most of us.

    I expect the sellers to take a break between now and the 30th analysyt meeting with some institutions adding positions. Looking for positive news on cash flow, ad revenue, and pricing increases as of July 1.

    I am long with 10,000 shares at xbar=37.30 with lots of institutional company underwater with me. Lots of pressure on FMCN to have a very positive meeting.

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    • Great analysis. I agree with you that there is a lot of pressure on the company to put out some really good news.

      • 1 Reply to mardob55
      • Also, this just out from Alpha:
        "With over 38M shares currently sold short, it will take nearly 7 days of normal trading for short sellers of to cover their positions. This creates an appetizing situation for an opportunistic hedge fund, large investor or even the company itself via a stock buyback announcement to send the company’s shares barreling northward and send short sellers frantically running for the exits.

        Even without the above “squeeze” scenario playing out, and barring any new bombshells from the company or a major negative macro economic development, the company’s shares are likely to begin a climb back into the low to mid $30’s prior to the Q2 earnings announcement expected in early September."

        Risky but I'm betting on a positive analyst meeting and will continue to accumulate between now and then.

    • PS: StockScouter Money Analysis seems to also indicate that there is not significant institutional manipulation as others have indicated on this board.

      The price-to-sales multiple is significantly higher than the average for all stocks in the StockScouter universe. Very positive for a medium- to large-sized company like US:FMCNPrevious day’s closing price for US:FMCN was significantly below its 50-day moving average, a level from which prices frequently rebound over the long term. Positive

      One or more analysts has significantly decreased quarterly earnings estimates for US:FMCN. Negative

      Shares are neither being accumulated heavily nor sold heavily by financial institutions. Neutral for a large company like US:FMCN

      I am now accumulating small blocks