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Focus Media Holding Ltd. Message Board

  • paultradestoday paultradestoday Aug 28, 2008 12:14 PM Flag

    Fundamentals and Technicals

    Some comments such as "broke trough 32 resistance" are not statisically correct. There is something very important about the 31-32 range and that is that over 40 million shares were traded in two days of trading in recent months so a lot of new owners came in at that range. They may start getting out around 36. It may have broke through the 32 price but the next tech resistance is around 36. see the below:
    Support and resistance are price levels where trend will stop and reverse direction. Support describes price where buyers will enter the market to prevent the prices from going down. Resistance describes the price at which sellers will enter and stop the prices from rising.

    Support:
    28.55 -2.67 points (-8.55%) below the current price
    23.46 -7.76 points (-24.86%) below the current price
    Resistance:
    36.79 5.57 points (17.84%) above the current price
    40.29 9.07 points (29.05%) above the current price
    43.56 12.34 points (39.53%) above the current price

    Also, some discusions on this board recently concerning the investors day indicated the thougts of some that FMCN may announce an upside surprise for 4Q. Well, the fundies and their recent cc indicate they will not increase the estimates for teh year or for the 4Q.
    1. two weeks ago they refused to make any changes to the 4Q. That was their opportunity and nothing has changed to warrant any upside.
    2. AR may weigh down the 4Q with write offs for bad debts; which they must address in this meeting
    3. This will be their oppotunity to roll out their long range plans and to paint next year's rosey picture

    I will scale out 25% of my shares on the way to 36 and then buy them back around 28 and wait for next yaer.

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    • I am not disagreeing, but I would like your thoughts. You mention write-offs for bad debt from the accounts receivable being so large (with lengthy past dues). Do we have any idea how much, if any, of this AR might be uncollectable? I am a business owner. I have some AR that is 9-12 months old. However, I know I will collect it, so I don't consider it bad debt. It is simply work that pays on a different cycle.

      Also, I agree that we may not continue straight up to $60. However, do you really think we pull back to 28 again? If so, when? The AR write-off is the biggest potential bad-news that I can see. What are your thoughts? I enjoy reading your posts.

    • There hasn't been very much change in the support/resistance levels since this original post. I did sell a few small lots of my 14000 shares around 33.40 but wasn't able to reduce by my original 25% goal as it took a u-turn to support. I just rebought those shares and I'm back to 14000 and will follow the same plan as it approaches resistance around 36. Nice to trade around the core position without buying calls.

    • I am glad they are addressing the issue of AR.


      Especially keen to here through sales profits.

      Overall the company is in a strong space. The volatility of the market may put people off.

      However valuations now look extremely tempting.
      The consumer market in China is growing robustly
      and that is the key for the company.

      Thanks for your reports.

    • wow...your good...days or minutes. Seems like your on to something here...could you explain in further detail abbasmart.

    • [There is something very important about the 31-32 range]

      There is nothing that is important about some numbers.

      [so a lot of new owners came in at that range.]

      No. Just a lot of idiots trading back and forth.

      [Support and resistance are price levels where trend will stop and reverse direction.]

      If that were true, everyone would be rich. Therefore, it must be true only to a coin flip expectation minus the 10% drag on algorithmic decision procedures.

      [Support describes price where buyers will enter the market to prevent the prices from going down.]

      "Support" doesn't mean anything because it can't be adequately defined. Doing so refutes its definition. It's like defining what a unicorn looks like. When you look for corroboration there is none.

      [Well, the fundies and their recent cc indicate they will not increase the estimates for teh year or for the 4Q.]

      They know the future?

      [1. two weeks ago they refused to make any changes to the 4Q.]

      You mistake projection based on the past with what occurs in the future.

      [That was their opportunity and nothing has changed to warrant any upside.]

      How do you know? Because you haven't heard any? Thus, you mistake your projection into the future with the future.

      [2. AR may weigh down the 4Q with write offs for bad debts; which they must address in this meeting]

      Clearly, you failed to read the transcript of the CC, or failed to listen to what Daniel stated.

      [3. This will be their oppotunity to roll out their long range plans and to paint next year's rosey picture]

      No, it won't. They don't do things that way.

      [I will scale out 25% of my shares on the way to 36 and then buy them back around 28 and wait for next yaer.]

      This is patzer level thinking. Boy, you'll never make it in this biz, but that would be evident anyway by your third grade discussion of hokus pokus technical analysis.

    • ahaha...you exhaust me to death

    • Guys like you are dime a dozen. They come, spew their idiocy, and then leave. If you go back in this board, you won't find any of the current posters, but you will find me. Do you remember the CPA who made a lot of air head typical, uninformed, CPA-like claims about FMCN? I refuted everything he said but he didn't respond. He didn't respond because CPAs don't know squat about the stock market investment. The guy claimed that flow of funds statement is the prime source for assessment info. You agree with that, amateur?

    • ahaha..i have to admit.. you are one hilarious guy; I've been here for a while. I'm sticking with FMCN for a long investment and will continue to trade around the edges (even tho I'm not a pure out-and-out trader) and will continue to post here just to piss you off. My methods may not fit your orthodox mentality but they work for me. By the way i read every transcript and financial report and don't rely on analysysts or what anyone else has to say. But, it's always good to hear what they have to say>>>including YOU>

    • ahhh...you are correct, you have been here awhile. I have also. So does that make it ok to rag on all the newcomers? Personally, I like to hear the way the newcomers talk about their positions. It gives me insite into the reasons why the stock price may behave the way it does.

    • [So does that make it ok to rag on all the newcomers?]

      Yes. They clutter this board with their false claims, and endless chatter about price. You think any of it has any value? You're deluding yourself.

      Let me correct you. I have been here since the IPO when Sushi_Lui told me SNDA was junk compared to FMCN. At first, I didn't bel;ieve it, but then I investigated. Thanks again, Sush, wherever you are. They all hated you but you know I appreciated your efforts.

      Instead of talking about me, why not challenge me about the various points I make about the idiots or about the company? For example, repeatedly I have stated the A/R plaint is noise about nothing. The idiots don't believe me, they don't believe company officials in the CC who fully addressed it, but maybe they believe some analyst because the analyst releases a cryptic message about it over SP. Is that what you're indirectly defending? Idiot reports which the idiots think might jiggle price enough for them to get out of their gambling positions? Is that what you defend?

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