Current HK price 26.1 divide by currency ratio 7.792
multiply by ADR ratio 15 gives you USD $50, so we should
buy today. There is a headline story that the new
A shares will push the price up to HK$35 meaning
LFC will be fairly priced at $67.38.
I still have FNSR and a 'lot' of TIE. What disappointments!
I don't want to take any loses on FNSR. So, I'm going to hold and see what happens. I'll sell at 4 or more.
TIE is one of my long-long-term holdings. I thought it would be 35 by now. The owners (husband & wife) are still buying at 29+. It's a good sign. I just hope a 'take over' will be announced soon. 30% premium would be nice.
I did very well with GRRF. I too am waiting to buy it again at the 'right' price and the right moment.
Good Luck to You in 2007! I hope it will be better than 2006.
1. Today the closing price of 48.07 is way below the Hong Kong closing price, people in the States were in panic.
2. Next Tuesday IPO in Shanghai will give indication of short term trend.Lots of hot money there even the central bank just announced another 0.5% tightening up for bank reserve.
3. In the long run, it really does not matter, simply hold it and accumulate when chances come like today.
More math: there are 2.6667 more shares out after the split so "smart" people are selling extra shares to lock in huge gains and hedge against possible future declines. Other than that, not a damn thing has changed with regard to the basic China Life business (atleast what we know about it).
Interesting. Can you let me know why the mkt cap is so different. The mkt cap is $194B HKD (as at today) which translates to about $25B USD. Why does the same co. has $32.16B (as at end of close today) mkt cap? If your logic works(which I am not questioning), both the price and mkt cap should be align... what do you think?
Valley - if the IPO is priced at 18.8, a 33% gain would be up to 24. At current HK$26, that would mean they are almost fairly valued (in terms of expectations).
What kinds of gains were they expecting to push the HK price up to 35 or 40? That's more than 100%.
Whoever is shorting this stock should be pretty careful. I highly doubt this stock will fall further, since the current HK 30% premium seems very reasonable. I live in a Chinese speaking country, and oh boy, do they love insurance here. They prefer buying insurance (especially annuities) before saving money in the bank (or even the stock market, which is viewed as manipulated and risky). Almost everybody I know has some form of life insurance, even people in their 20s. LFC's current premium over other insurance companies are fairly well deserved, IMO.
(Disc: I don't own LFC, but would consider buying here @ 48, but I hesitate to use the last of my funds.)