although IDEV's bs and is are weak compared to RDY, it's pipeline is extremely exciting: trospium, pagaclone and citiglocine.
trospium is expecting FDA approval in a month's time. this is a product that will be best of the line compared to the existing products pharmacia's detrol(33%) and j&j's product(53%). it has a better safety profile(15 years of proven safety profile in europe; today's products have some heart issues) and much better effectiveness(drug starts working within a week compared to 3-4 weeks for detrol and j&j's product. product is for oab-overactive bladder. market is around $1.3 billion. IDEV may launch their product in June 2004. I am expecting them to capture around 50% of the market ion 2 years time-frame due to the above mentioned advantages. labeling of the drug will reflect those advantages. management has said that they are in late stage of finalizing a marketing deal with a major pharma.
why i invested? launch of trospium in 2004. potential of trospium due to it's quicker effectiveness and safety profile compared to existing products 2 other exciting products one in phase 3(pagaclone). company currently valued at $300 mill trospium's value alone will be $500 mill in 2006. assuming that is true, earnings could be easily 500*0.5/50= 5$/share. pagaclone address a market of $20 billion. huge potential opportunity here. plus, some institutional investors have loaded this stock from 2003 last quarter. management supposedly has a history of sandbagging. they are sitting on cash of $70 million to execute their plan.