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Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Ltd. Message Board

  • bs572 bs572 Mar 12, 2004 10:36 AM Flag

    Check whats in the pipeline.?

    Zilch for 2004.

    The Mumbai boys in contact with the F.C were good at alerting me to this late Dec.

    I continue holding till they give me the green light to cover.!

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    • My Mumbai contact advised me to close out my position and to go long which I did this morning.

      He says that the bottom is in or nearabouts and there is risk of a squeeze.

    • No affect on 2004 earnings which is flat.

      I have been short since last year and am now hoping to close out late May when I expect to see the low.

    • Jogan_P: Dream on. Mumbai boys were tipped off during a underworld gathering that the 2004 pipeline was bone dry and the local Matka recommendation was short.

      I am holding my position as they expect RDY to trade in the high Teens shortly.

      Dont ask me any more because I have none.!

    • although IDEV's bs and is are weak compared to RDY, it's pipeline is extremely exciting: trospium, pagaclone and citiglocine.

      trospium is expecting FDA approval in a month's time.
      this is a product that will be best of the line compared to the existing products pharmacia's detrol(33%) and j&j's product(53%).
      it has a better safety profile(15 years of proven safety profile in europe; today's products have some heart issues) and much better effectiveness(drug starts working within a week compared to 3-4 weeks for detrol and j&j's product.
      product is for oab-overactive bladder. market is around $1.3 billion. IDEV may launch their product in June 2004. I am expecting them to capture around 50% of the market ion 2 years time-frame due to the above mentioned advantages. labeling of the drug will reflect those advantages.
      management has said that they are in late stage of finalizing a marketing deal with a major pharma.

      why i invested?
      launch of trospium in 2004.
      potential of trospium due to it's quicker effectiveness and safety profile compared to existing products
      2 other exciting products one in phase 3(pagaclone).
      company currently valued at $300 mill
      trospium's value alone will be $500 mill in 2006. assuming that is true, earnings could be easily 500*0.5/50= 5$/share.
      pagaclone address a market of $20 billion. huge potential opportunity here.
      plus, some institutional investors have loaded this stock from 2003 last quarter.
      management supposedly has a history of sandbagging.
      they are sitting on cash of $70 million to execute their plan.

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