I disagree with your shorts are right 70-80% of
the time idea.
After the big move the risk/reward
swings and shorts are not right at this point. It is too
simple to lump all these companies together because of
restatements- CIEN has little track record and is a market
leader in a volatile and changing field, CD always had
accounting questions. I lump MCK at this point to when I
bought TLAB last year at 34 and PHG (phillips NV ) at a
similar price. If HBOC was a little sleazy by booking
early - and burned by contingencies - then these must
at some point be washed - early booking of sales
cannot stay on the books forever. It takes a quarter or
two to fully clean up - MCK management tightens up
the companies then benefits from expanded clout among
all lines of medical management. The point here is
value and every case is different.
I would keep an eye on the kind numbers that
shorts are going to be trying to hype from here. I've
found throughout my trading career that they're 70 to
80 percent of the time on target, at least briefly
anyways, with badly battered stocks and MCK falls into
Remember stocks such as Cendant,
and Cien especially though, they were all once high
fliers. At its height Cien traded for around 90 but now
in the teens and twenty's. Never fully recovered.
I wonder if, for the moment, MCK has changed from
a momentum play to a value play. Does anyone think
a lot of shares will change hands from aggressive
growth managers to value managers? Happily, value is no
longer a dirty word. Money is moving out of high tech
and the internet, and into formerly uncool stocks
like paper and aluminum.
Many value managers
are looking for companies that are basically sound,
with a strong core business, but which have been
ruthlessly punished by the market for some specific problem.
Maybe some of the cockier value managers are starting
to accumulate MCK now, while others more cautious
will wait for further news.
It's inevitable that people
will compare the two. But comparing does not mean they
are the same! Sometimes one compares in order to
better highlight the differences.
One thought is
that the panic selloff in MCK was because people
feared it was another Cendant. But over time, we may
find that the accounting problems at MCK are less
severe and less widespread than at Cendant, and that
this difference in degree amounts to a difference in
My optomist's [sic] word for the day!
at $34.50, quite a lot of bad news already seems to
be priced into this stock. I bought at 34-1/8. I
plan to discipline myself to buy more if the price
I guess it depends on the time frame - theMCK
side has always been superb. I doubt booking some
revenues too early will occur after full integration into
MCK. My strategy was buy a piece yesterday - If no
second shoe then I'm set - if so and similar type then
will pick up more- the key in these situations is :
how much is the company worth? my answer is MCK
(without HBOC) is worth more than what I paid for it by
itself. The management is sound and will clean it up and
hand shareholders value - look at the 5 yr chart.
good luck to all whether you buy this week or
to many posts to find out what your spin is on
all of this. What is your prediction for rock bottom?
I hesitantly got 1,000 yesterday at 33 1/2 net and
was wondering if I missed the boat and should have
got more instead of waiting to see if it was going
It seems that the retail investors were the last
to know and then it was too late to do anything. The
stock opened 30 points lower than it's close the
previous day. That tells me the institutional investors
got tipped off and got out.
Re the insider
trades, how much of the insider buying was done with
money borrowed from the company?
One issue is
MCK credibility but my concerns are beyond just MCK.
I would like to know what role the major brokerages
and institutions played in a 30+ point drop. I am
betting that very few sales were small retail investors I
would like to see who traded the big blocks and when
they were traded.
Law suits without merit.
click profile and
look at the insider buying yourself!
were paying $60-70+ so it shows that they didn't have
advanced inside information about the accounting error.