Sorry, I've been away a few days...
So Eagle finds a way to juice the EBITTA, but anyone who looked at the report saw that cash flow was PITIFUL! In fact, without the KLC settlement, Eagle would have burned $8M in cash in Q1. That means they will burn $8M in cash in Q2.
I'm re-running my calcs, but I don't think even with the EBITDA juice from KLC in Q1, that they will have generated enough to save themselves from being in default.
Puts have barely moved despite the huge runup in price, shares are no longer available for shorting through my broker, and I understand that 80% of the buying in the stock was retail, with institutional selling.
If you're in the money, take it. The bank needs cash to get paid, and there still isn't any cash flow.
do u trade options or just talk about 'em? "Puts have barely moved despite the huge runup in price" u have to be joking, right ? r u expecting ur Sep $1 puts to go up ? they can't fall any farther than nothing so not sure what u say?
Dec 3 puts haven't moved a bit. In fact they traded 40 cents on the 16th and last traded 45 cents.
Sep 3 puts have traded steady at 30 cents from the 16th until today.
Of course the nearby puts moved. duhh! idiot!
i have been asking the same question of the bulls for 15 months. check the blog, see the "carter worth" page.
over that time, it has not one time been answered. not once. i repeat - not one time.
the question is this: what is your freight forecast for supras over the next year or two. the forward curve from today is posted below. so, if you are buying a company with supra exposure - you need to plug in these numbers and see what you get for "fair" value of such companies. if you agree with the forward curve, you need to state why you are buying despite the grim forecast. if you disagree with the futures market - which is traded by the largest names in dry bulk - you need to state your forecast, and...if you are able, maybe make the case as to why your numbers are higher than market insiders.
supra forward curve
Cal 14 $8,700
Cal 15 $9,400
so if a company has a break even at about $9,600/day....how much debt do they pay back prior to the end of 2015? if you are a bull - the best thing you can do is make your case. if its valid - then others will buy and shorts will cover - and then you make money, yes? thats why we're all here.
so now is the chance to explain a long position. and if your case is good - then i post it on the blog -and of course go long too. win/win, yes?
send hate mail to the blog address. thanks, mike
"I'm re-running my calcs, but I don't think even with the EBITDA juice from KLC in Q1, that they will have generated enough to save themselves from being in default."
One of the analysts on the call was grilling Soph on that point, more-or-less. He was trying to get Soph to state the charter rate that EGLE must earn to maintain compliance.
Soph's response was that the compliance "market" was changing....
The Q&A session as a whole was a loopy as the 10-Q.