I was able to track down CIBC's detailed analysis for PTM.TO. I would be happy to send anyone the pdf via email if you reach out to me via LinkedIn (see below for the link) or post your email in this post. Here are some of the highlights:
-1.90 price target in next 12-18 months with significant upside potential in the next 3 months
-significant upside in its investment properties
-consolidation potential in the WBJV1 project
-unsure whether they will be able to get entire $260m under loan facility due to market conditions; if that's the case, may need to raise more than the anticipated 100m in equity financing. That amounts to at least 71m addition shares at 1.40 a share. Given this, they believe that there may be some chance of takeover talks for that project in the near future
-hedging of the loan facility at current metals prices could substantially cap any upside potential of the other metals (i.e. Palladium and Gold) extracted from WBJV1 project
-other investment properties have some significant value in the next couple of years but will remain on the backburner as the company pushes forward with construction.
My personal opinion is that if they could find a buyer for the WBJV1 mine at decent price (though not at a premium to what we believe to be Platinum's potential), they should take it and use that capital to increase shareholder value through acquisitions given their market insight and depressed prices and further growth in their North American and South African mines.
When I asked the analyst the likliehood of a potential buyout of the WBJV1 mine in the near-term, he said the following:
60% ?? The high outstanding capital requirement in the current market where industry balance sheets are depleted and most guys are scrambling to cut capex / conserve cash makes it this low because it will then have to be a paper deal – except if the Chinese in the next door asset decide to “go big or go home”…..