This son of a gun is having a really tough time going below $30/share. You would think that it would be retesting its lows around $23 here pretty soon as its major components are issuing dilutive common stock dividends rather than cash dividends that they used to pay out.
This thing has flirted with 29.50 or so. I'm waiting for the bottom to fall out of this. These REITs have nothing but trouble ahead of them for years to come. I just don't understand being long.
We are getting very close to those support levels that have been tested recently. If this thing busts through $29.55-$29.70, I see it testing the November lows around $23.50 soon.
This will be interesting to see if the support holds, b/c recently it has held and this darn thing has bounced.
Issuing stock to pay a dividend leaves the shareholder with no additional value. Each time a dividend is paid, 90% of it will be made out of thin air by issuing stock. The “economic pie” or market capitalization will remain the same, but you’ll have more shares. It’s called dilution. You’ll have more shares, but each share will represent less value of the company. There is no value created to the shareholder by issuing it stock dividends.
Effectively, SPG cut their dividend substantially. Work it out on a piece of paper and quit lying to yourself.
SPG effectively cut its dividend by 90% (issuing stock dividends), according to its 4Q08 earnings statement.
Issuing stock in lieu of cash is NOT cutting the dividend by 90%. In fact, they maintained the payout at .90 cents a share which is exactly what it was for the past few quarters. They also issued flat guidance for 2009 which is a far cry from being a short candidate imo.
You prefer to paint a negative picture because you're short selling the stock but the financials detailed in the last quarterly report paint a different scene.
You just keep that short position for a few more weeks and we'll see how the stimulus package affects housing.
I don’t know what you’re talking about re: the divvy; SPG effectively cut its dividend by 90% (issuing stock dividends), according to its 4Q08 earnings statement. That will tell you something about how SPG really views its outlook.
The IYR nearly tripled from June 1999 to July 2007 during the real estate boom. It SUBSTANTIALLY outperformed the S&P 500 over that time period (by 150% at its peak), and now it is reverting to the mean. It has further to go to catch up with the S&P 500 on the downside. I will be done shorting this thing when it touches the lows at $23/share.
thats the thing about the market, you can always count on it to do the unpredictable and for it(and the powers that be) to cause the most peolpe to lose the greatest amount of money to their(the powers)benefit
for instance all those puts on IYR, seems like it has to go down, but it probably won't
Looks like the put pressure, combined with actiual REIT earnings, unemployment claims and real economic data are all causing the break in $30. If $29.11 doesn't hold, this goes down quickly and fast towards mid $20s. Being in IYR puts, I am expecting that too happen.
The same way as the financial index tied to C, BAC and all the others. There is still plenty of meat left on the bone in terms of falling further than 66%. SPG and VNO alone are way, way overpriced for the economic and balance sheet realities that they face.