As we learned from the Onyx buy, Amgen's cash is largely overseas, which is why rather than pay out of their $22 million checkbook Amgen had to take out at 5 year $8.1 billion loan, and pause their billion dollar share repurchase program. I think Amgen is perfectly content to wait for the long-term cosmic data, and maybe even sneak a peak at the BENEFIT data (re: Kyprolis intermi data) before considering a move. At this point I can't blame analysts (and Amgen) for not including OM in their revenue models without long-term efficacy data.
Buyout value IMO is MC x 1.5 (regardless of when). The longer a buyer waits, the more it is going to be. No offers likely until MO and/or passes FDA IMO, or at least on rails to do so.
Guessing at potential buy out targets is a old as dirt, but CYTK is on that list. It is fun, but academic to speculate.
I have been watching ONXX and AMGN closely, and I think AMGN paid too much for an over valued company. IMO CYTK on the other hand deserves a MC of 450 MM as it enters Phase III for either T or OM. Having T by-pass Phase III concurrently to when OM is cleared to enter Phase III will push it upwards to 475 MM...Nothing like sitting in the August sun pondering the what ifs. Reality hits tomorrow...Any guess to what the week is going to be like for CYTK? My spider sense based on currency trading at the moment suggests the DOW will be sluggish, thats all I can offer.
This is the real question now that the markets are closed and the anoucement is pending. I now have a long position going into the weekend... I had been expecting a bigger dip since earlier in the month, but it never came. Today CYTK has a 300M cap, and I consider the Dawson-James report from last November (pay attention-per share estimates are still pre-split!) a reasonable estimate of the potential sales/profitability of (successfully commercialized) Ttirasemtiv ... somewhere between $2-3B over 10 years... and that's just for Tirasemtiv. Amgen's is using its clout to announce results... and I agree with another poster, it has to be good news, or else it would be buried in a conference call, and not announced at a premeire European cardio conference by Amgen itself. If results are stellar, a buyout attempt would not be unexpected-- how much might the company worth, realistically, at this point? $1B? $2B? more? If no buyout, does CYTK support at least a $20 or $30 share price near-term? Anyone have ideas on an exit strategy for very short (Tuesday), short (next week), and mid (September) term longs?
ONXX is so very different, while they look great now..they have competition...meaningful competition..where CYTK is in a league of its own..with ALS ...they own all of it..a year away from potential market release..350 thousand ALS patients world wide...likely a 5,000 dollar a month drug.
Customers lined up like the tickets for the Stones at the Roxy...
I can not imagine why they would ever even consider selling at this stage of the game